Think I'm with you on that one Harvie.
Been thinking about 3betting a fair bit lately.
If someone wants/needs the maths I'll post it up by the way, it's not hard stuff.
Say a reg plays 4bet/fold oop (which is often the case), opens to 3bb from the UTG and we 3bet to 9bb from the BU, then we need fold equity of about 67% preflop. I've found from experience, although I haven't run any reports on this to back it up, that regs fold mostly around this or a bit more, particularly OOP.
Let the UTG open around 15% for example (keeping the sums easy), then to play 4bet/fold they will need to defend around 6% for us to break even. I highly doubt an 15% rfi reg is going broke with 5%(more likely 2.5%), which leaves us with a nice profitable move.
I think we get a lot more folds than that, even if they do 4bet bluff or flat on occasion because they feel we're getting out of hand. Truth is it's hard to flat a 3bet OOP and not play fit/fold because even if they call a cbet, what if we barrel on a 'danger' turn?
Anyway, I got as far as extrapolating this to the reg 4bet/folds to 3bets 80% of the time. If we make profit when they 4bet/fold 70%, then surely we can just pound them at 80? I think this is a bit of a misconception, which was my motivation in looking at all this stuff.
Say we 3bet the 80% folds guy to death until they adjust, it seems to me that we're gaining 10% more of the pot each time they fold than we do versus the 70% folds guy. Sounds fun, but;
The pot is 4.5bb before we 3bet and generate a fold from our reg friend.
and 10% of 4.5 is only 0.45bb which suddenly doesn't sound so great. Oh yes, it all adds up over time I know; but does it in reality?
I think nearly any reg will get fed up and play back at us after a short time, whether they do so well or badly (more likely the latter) is immaterial surely.
Say we 3bet and get folds 5 times in a row, we've gained 5 X 0.45bb = 2.25bb more than if we attack them more 'normally' as the 70% folds reg. But now they've played back and we lose our profit and our bet, which was 9bb so we are in loss now.
So, more succinctly, just because they fold a little more than the norm doesn't mean we can go all ape and start pummeling them with abandon, although those blockers count for a lot of course.
I had a look at casual players to but came to a different conclusion, in fact fairly well opposed to the one above.
This has been a bit of a mouthful, but if anyone has read this and didn't fall asleep or cry laughing and can see holes in my thinking, this please let me know.
My brain cell hurts.
Here's a 'Whew!' graph from Monday: