FR100 top set vs flushy board and massive overbet

Posted 4 years ago

V is 23/16/6 over 500 hands, seems like a 6max guy who's found my fishy site and is beating on the weak FR competition, which is MY job. Anyway, I know I butchered the flop (shoulda raised bigger) and the turn (no reason to slow down, can still be against overpairs with a spade). So anyway, I played it too weak, I honestly have no idea what I was doing (other than multitabling and being an idiot), and now he fires massive otr. Thoughts?

Boss Media (IPN) No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - BossMedia Converter Tool from

UTG ($118.46)
UTG+1 ($34.49)
MP1 ($149.53)
MP2 ($79)
MP3 ($69)
Hero (CO)($158.80)
Button ($98.50)
SB ($105.90)
BB ($31.68)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8Attached Image, 8Attached Image
2 folds, MP1 raises $2.87, MP2 calls $2.87, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.87, 3 folds

Flop: ($10.11) 4Attached Image, 6Attached Image, 8Attached Image(3 players)
MP1 bets $7.58, 1 fold, Hero raises $24.16, MP1 calls $16.58

Turn: ($58.43) 7Attached Image(2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($58.43) 2Attached Image(2 players)
MP1 bets $77, Hero??


Last Post 4 years ago by






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Posted 4 years ago*
The last time I saw 9 people sitting at a cash game table the year was 2001 (sorry, could not resist!)

I'm fully expecting them to get in sets, straights and two pairs on the flop, calling range is flush draws, over pairs and maybe hands like 56/T9.

Everything gets there on the turn and I think I'd be folding river because I don't see all that many bluffs in their range, or worse value hands other than a turned 77. Then when we factor in their are a 23/16, don't think they are too creative to go wild here.

Posted 4 years ago*
Harvie: The last time I saw 9 people sitting at a cash game table the year was 2001 (sorry, could not resist!)

Don't worry boss, I need better players like you to think this way. I have no probs sitting at a table of people all worse than me, and once 6maxers find out where all the fish went, my fun will be over. I also play on BBJ tables, I'd prefer not to since the drop is .5BB per hand, which is crushing, except that again, that's where the fish are.

As for this hand, 23/16 at FR is actually pretty loose, also 6% or so 3! is very high at these tables, so I think he's got most of the moves in his arsenal. Anyway, I couldn't figure out why he overbet. If he has AA/KK, since no one folds sets+, he's hoping to get 2p to fold? That seems crazy. So like you said, no real bluffs here, I don't think. I guess it was a play for super-max value, maybe trying to make up for the fact he didn't get to c/r the turn?

I had a discussion elsewhere about the Fundamental Theorem of Poker and charging draws, and I was reminded that as far as forcing your opponents to make mistakes, if we don't call when their draws get there, then we did make them make a mistake after all.
Posted 4 years ago
Oh yes, you're right for some reason I was apply 6max stats to 9max.

I don't think they are betting over pairs to fold sets or two pair, they are betting them because they think there's value against your lower over pair or 8x type hands.
Posted 4 years ago
Yeah if you're playing at a table with 8 people worse than you I don't expect that they will suddenly start turning their overpairs into a bluff to move you off of sets. It's just one of those spots where you're perfectly happy going broke on most of the deck, but everything got there so I'd just fold the river.
Posted 4 years ago
I'd fold to the overbet. It's a spot where since villain called a raise on the flop it's going to be incredibly difficult for him to be bluffing. Unless he called flop with air he needs to be turning a made hand into a bluff here, and because of his sizing he needs to do that quite a bit in order to balance his value bets.
Posted 4 years ago
As played I'm folding the river. Villain's flop calling range will almost always have showdown value by the turn which I wouldn't expect a 23/16 player to be turning into a bluff in a full ring game. Even though he's loose the gap between VPIP and PFR generally indicates passivity.

I'm interested in what size river bet you guys would be happy to call though.

If we're going to fold to such a large % of bets then is it completely ridiculous to think about betting the turn in position? If villain has enough non flush/straight showdown value in his range that will sometimes have a spade draw or maybe smaller sets then we can protect against getting bluffed to some degree as we expect him to just call these hands.

Posted 4 years ago
I totally agree I wish I'd bet the turn, and don't expect him to raise anything except flushes. My prob lately (well, one of them) is that I'm switching so much between online, live, and online tourneys, so some of the decisions that we rely on muscle memory for, my brain just isn't quick enough to keep switching between strategies. (In live the turn is a clear continuation bet, online I was too slow to decide so checked as time back was ticking down. I think by doing that I gave a timing tell that I had a set/small flush and was unsure, so he went for max value otr.)
Posted 4 years ago
This is a pretty interesting spot. We show a lot of weakness on the turn by checking back in position here so if villain is doing this with any kind of bluff it is a great spot for it IMO. If he has a flush or a straight I would have expected him to be going smaller with these types of hands to try to get value from your set/overpair type hands.

Now lets take some hands where villain has something like 99. When you check back the turn it seems fairly clear you are not in love with your hand but after the flop raise you likely have something, and there is a decent chance that something beats villains 99. By putting in an overbet here he is folding out all hands he is ahead of, but also an absolute ton of hands that he is losing to also which will boost his EV massively.

I would be tempted to call down here if we have any kind of inclination that our villain is a thinking player. I'm obviously not happy about the situation at all though.
Posted 4 years ago
Tx again everyone. I actually levelled meself almost exactly like @fergrberger laid out, and thought this was an awesome spot to turn an overpair with a spade into a bluff. Which NEVER happens, but still, it would be an awesome move.

Apparently another awesome move is overbetting the pot with QTs for a made flush, and getting a donktard with top set and a pretentious screen name to call. Puke

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