NL5 33 Flopped Set vs River Jam

Posted 2 years agoEdited 2 years ago

Standard open, but undersized. I've been using smaller sizes with hands like this recently. I'm not getting played back at much at NL5.

Bink flop so easy Cbet, turn is a blank so fire again. River pairs, which doesn't really matter except 55 less likely.

What the hell can his range be here? KK would be 3bet. Some JJ maybe, 1 combo of 55. 5x can't have got to the river. Does anyone at this limit turn missed spades or QT into a bluff.

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 22.55, PFR: 18.63, 3Bet Preflop: 12.94, Hands: 207)
BB: 138 BB (VPIP: 45.65, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 99)
UTG: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 32.00, PFR: 28.00, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 25)
Hero (MP): 198.4 BB
CO: 159.2 BB (VPIP: 16.39, PFR: 11.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 125)
BTN: 113.8 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 3h 3c
fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, BTN calls 2.2 BB, fold, BB calls 1.2 BB

Flop : (7 BB, 3 players) Js Kh 3s
BB checks, Hero bets 4.4 BB, BTN calls 4.4 BB, fold

Turn : (15.8 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero bets 11.8 BB, BTN calls 11.8 BB

River : (39.4 BB, 2 players) 5d
Hero bets 19.6 BB, BTN raises to 95.4 BB and is all-in, ?

Last Post 2 years ago by






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Posted 2 years ago
so, I allow me to rebound the questions:
1. KK 'would 3bet' why
2. 'Some JJ maybe' why
Can you see it yet? We're playing against 14 hands and making an awful lot of assumptions that we have no basis for.

My own fishy opinion is we're happily stuck with the 'shipit' option versus a nearly unknown.

I'd bet flop bigger that's a great flop for some action. I also like to bluff 2 broadways/one minor card flops.

I'd bet turn to nearly pot and call it off to a push.

Not folding river, nice hand if ya gotz me mr villain, nice hand.

Thing is if we assume so much we're really profecting our thinking onto villain and we have no idea if they think like us - and they most probably don't.

Just a thought ...

gl Smile

Posted 2 years ago
Hi Pwll!

I'm not reading much into stats with no sample size. I'm making reads based on population tendancies as he's mainly an unknown.

1 - Because almost everyone will 3bet KK pre, not flat my small open. He has at least raised 1 hand, so he's not going to be 75/0 (unless it was a misclick!)
2 - Because JJ I think is in some peoples 3betting range but I could imagine a flat as well.

What range would you put him on then? I just couldn't make one. Felt like I'm calling just because I had a boat, but I hate calling jams unless I can think of some realistic hands that take this line that I beat.
Posted 2 years ago
Ok, that's fair enough, I don't use a hud at all very often myself.
I'd widen my flatting range a bit versus a small open, but I still only have 55,65s and A5s which include a 5.
I expect KJ on that board might well think they had the relative nuts though.

I expect one or two of our more expert types on here can answer better.

I would call it off anyway versus a nearly unknown and not think too much about it, remember JonVIP's PDDS (People Do Dumb S***) as well!

Posted 2 years ago
I agres, that he mostly has no KK in his hand.
JJ is possible.

I do not understand why you discount 5x. In my oppinion he can have every 5x of spades. I would not think that he punts away a stack with a bluff against 3 streets, but he might do this with KJ because it is very unlikely that you have a 5. clear call

regarding the sizing: flop OK, turn bigger... way bigger and jam the river so you dont worry about these spots Smile
Posted 2 years ago
Xs5s. Yeah, that I didn't consider that.

How much bigger can I make the turn? Potting is only 3bb more. Then a river jam would need to be twice pot?
Posted 2 years ago
you could think about an overbet on the turn.
Posted 2 years ago
I think everything is possible at these limits and the stats we have mean nothing. I have seen guys flat KK here, but highly unlikely from a population standpoint. I do, in fact, think that there are players capable of turning QT or something like A2 or A4 in spades into a bluff. They could certainly have 54, 65, 75 A5 in spades. I could possible see them floating 5x hearts on flop but not sure if they would call the turn.

I personally would overbet this turn. If you bet flop even 1bb bigger, then a 1.5x turn over bet would be 27bb. So leaves you with a slightly over pot bet on river, but you can basically get stacks in more comfortable. I think you be surprised by what you get called by when you jam, versus what they jam and now trying to figure out if you beat it enough or not.

So what beats you? Lets say 1 combo of KK, maybe 2 combos of JJ, as they may 3b it sometimes. I personally think they should fold 55 on the flop, but maybe they don't so thats 1 combo. Then does he have the 1 weird combo of K5s. Not likely but ok lets give it to him due to the smaller open size, so that is 4 combos. If my math is right you are getting 32% pots odds so need to be right that much. If 4 combos beat you then basically you only need him to have 2 worse combos for it to be a profitable call. Do you think it is possible for him to have 1 bluff and 1 worse value hand like a KJ or 5x? If so then call. If you think they have more value combos then you just need more worse hands.

I will end with this. There are a lot more competent players at the micros now a days. It is not the fish bowl it used to be. Information about poker is much more readily available and people seem to be quite a bit better. Still incredibly beatable but need to be on your game a bit more.

As played I would call versus an unknown. If this guys stayed this nitty over a larger sample and had no 3b, then I would probably fold it, as I think he can have all KK and JJ at that point and don't think he would ever be bluffing or jamming a worse hand. I think the nits would just call KJ and 5x, if they even had it, cuz thats what nits do

Posted 2 years ago
Absolutely snap calling this one off. I've started folding the weakest PP's from these positions but apart from that I think the hand is absolutely spot on, including sizes up to the river. River I'm going pretty huge, I expect villains range to be relatively inelastic here so happy to go close to pot.
Posted 2 years ago
I folded this after a full tank. He said in chat he had QT. He played pretty straightforward the rest of the session. 16/14 or so. Too eager to fold as always. I'm not in the habit of folding boats though.

I also didn't include PDDS. That alone probably should have made it a call.

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