Is this normal variance?

Posted 3 years ago

I'm on a massive downswing, about 13 buy-ins over ~7k hands on Bovada, mainly Bovada 10nl Zone. I don't have all of my hands imported into PT4 yet due to a 24-hour HH download delay, but here is my graph at 5k hands and I'm running around 9.5 buy-ins under all-in EV. Is this an expected swing that larger volume players session year-in and year-out? At this current point in time, I expect to be closer to 12-13 buy-ins under all-in EV after several more massive beats...but I won't know for sure for another 24 hours until I can download my HH's.

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Last Post 3 years ago by






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Posted 3 years ago
Couple of things to note.

Firstly you are running significantly below all-in EV which suggests there is a chance that you are running bad meaning this is normal variance.

To say for certain it would be necessarily to look at specific hands you have played to see if you are making any mistakes etc, but seeing as mathematically you are break-even I really wouldn't worry at this stage.

As a rough guide, even a seasoned pro will drop 15-20 buyins at some point at the lowest limits online assuming he plays over a million hands. However these swings are rare and it's certain more common to drop less than 10buyins on the average downswing at this limit.

My guess is that you have nothing to worry about at this stage.
Posted 3 years ago
Thanks for the feedback. I know I have been running really bad where I got all-in as an 88 - 98% equity favorite to lose the hand. A string of hands like these:

AA all-in OTF:
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KK all-in Pre:
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But I know I have been over-playing some hands as well that didn't help my downswing and probably added 2+ buy-in downward to it.

I'm not too worried because my graph is still pretty solid, but just wondering if this is something I should come to expect on a regular basis as I up my volume (this is missing about $50 in the downswing, so I'm hovering around $1k earnings):
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