Please turn your device sideways to play!

Expected Value Calculations

Did You Know: You earn VIP points for every quiz completed. Use these points to level up and reach VIP 5.

Don't be worried before taking this lesson that it is going to involve very complex maths, as its not going to. EV calculations are impotant in poker, as they lead us to making the most optimal play at any given time by analysing the situation we are faced with. Instead of thinking: "we are ahead or behind", we analyse the percentages and probability that the situation presents us with, this enables us to make the best play with our hand at any given time! This can be expressed by the following formula:

Total Amount of Money in the pot (including our call) / % of the time we win  = Our Expected Value

In terms of the: % of the time we win; we can use the 'Two Times Four Times' rule to give us the rough % chance of Winning the hand. 

First we need to calculate our 'outs', we then take this number and if we are on the flop multiply it by 4 to give us the rough percentage chance of hitting our hand by the river.

For example; if we hold 45 and have a flush draw on a 7jA flop, any of the following 9 cards in the deck will give us a flush:

2368910QkA

We therefore have 9 outs to make our flush. We then multiply 9 by 4 to give us 36, this is the rough percentage chance that we will hit our hand by the river. On the turn (with one card to come) we count our 'outs' again and multiply by 2 to give us the rough percentage chance of hitting.

This equation for calculating the chances of hitting outs can be expressed more clearly as:

Number of outs * 4 (if we are on the flop)= our rough percentage chance of hitting by the river.

Or

Number of outs * 2 (if we are on the turn)= our rough percentage chance of hitting by the river.

In our example if we are trying to calculate our chances of hitting our flush on the flop it would be caluculated like this:

9 * 4 = 36%

On the turn we would calculate our chances of hitting our flush as follows:

9 * 2 = 18% 

 

Lesson Leaderboard
1
El_Pitixone

El_Pitixone

202 XP in 14 seconds

on 4/3/15

2
lotteri3xx

lotteri3xx

198 XP in 16 seconds

on 18/12/16

3
narcotic333

narcotic333

186 XP in 22 seconds

on 15/2/15

4
hiphopo187

hiphopo187

146 XP in 42 seconds

on 4/9/18

5
Steinardo79

Steinardo79

109 XP in 16 seconds

on 28/3/18

6
FG_SpaceLord

FG_SpaceLord

108 XP in 17 seconds

on 24/8/17

7
M0nolith

M0nolith

106 XP in 62 seconds

on 27/1/16

8
OldDogNewTricks

OldDogNewTricks

103 XP in 15 seconds

on 27/4/15

9
WuGrodt

WuGrodt

102 XP in 18 seconds

on 28/4/18

10
taramokh

taramokh

98 XP in 27 seconds

on 25/2/15

Sign Up To Watch More

It only takes 1 minute to register and unlock access to unlimited poker videos.

OR

Take Part In This Promotion

Its easy, simply register with one of the rooms below and add your username to your PokerVIP account

Its easy, simply register with one of the rooms below and add your username to your PokerVIP account.
Add your "Room Name" username and register with PokerVIPEarn 250 VIP Points Instantly & 10 VIP Points for Every $1 in Rake.

"Room Name" Screename:

Register
Login

PokerVIP Credentials:

PokerVIP Credentials: