Last ~70k hands overall. I worked especially on BB-play the last months. My overall-winrate last ~250k hands in BB is about -30bb/100

-50bb/100 is not bad in theory but I think you can make 3bb/100 more overall if you become a crusher in the BB

My VPIP (on the right of the picture): 40%

3bet overall: ~9% (13% vs. BU steal, 16% vs. SB steal)

x/r Flop ~13%


I don't know what sort of winrate a player on microstakes can archieve because we have some problems with rake and should play a little bit tighter when we want to call. But a higher winrate than yours should be possible with a bit work (much work okay).

To find some obvious leaks I need stats (it will be better if you have more than 100k samplesize in your database):

- fold BB vs. BU (and write something about the average BU openraise size on your limits)
- fold BB vs. SB
- fold BB vs. CO
- fold BB vs. MP/EP

3bet:

- 3bet BB vs. SB
- 3bet BB vs. BU

Postflop

(x/r we have, it is too low obv)

- bet vs. missed cbet
- fold to cbet flop turn river

Hey @eroticjesus thanks so much for taking the time to give such a detailed comment. I'm struggling to pull some of the stats from PT4 because they require some custom filters but I've posted on the pokertracker forums so hopefully I'll get that for you to analyse this week.

Thanks again, I really appreciate it!

what are yuor ranges looking like there?

bbvsb i'm using like tt+,AQ+, baby offsuit aces & kings and some suited kings/gappers. Feels exploitable if villian starts 4betting me not enough hands to ship or call it off. How do you adjust ranges to compensate for this?

vs btn 2x 99+,AJ+,KQ with some 95s and worse hands

what do you think? also think i dont have a solid plan for the bluff part of my range postflop thinking about it, usually checking when I make top pair or starting to bet if I have some backdoors i guess and betting some autoprofit Axx Kxx type of boards

@eroticjesus I've managed to dig out those stats or at least I think I have... the stats are my VPIP from the BB when the first raiser is EP or MP ect

Database 115k

- VPIP BB vs. BU 29.1 (-66evbb/100) (average open is 2.5x)
- VPIP BB vs. SB 48.85 (-93evbb/100) (average open 3x SB-EP)
- VPIP BB vs. CO 23.2 (-89evbb/100)
- VPIP BBvs. MP 21 (-40evbb/100)
- VPIP BB vs. EP 18.77 (-40evbb/100)

3bet:

- 3bet BB vs. SB 13.4
- 3bet BB vs. BU 7.2

Postflop

- bet vs. missed cbet 28
- fold to cbet flop (49) turn (38) river (53)

@matty It depends what stakes your playing but if your playing

Looks like your not defending your BB enough. You fold too much and not 3bet enough (BB vs. SB 3bet looks okay, but BB vs. BU you should 3bet >12%, rule of thumb ---> the lower the limits the more succes with 3bets in the BB and the rake is high ---> 3bet > call in some spots).

I can try it in english to show you how to build ranges for BBvsSB and BBvsBU with help of math but tomorrow, long post + not a native english speaker, it takes some time that I don't have today


Example from your stats: BBvsSB, you fold ~51%, against that strategy, villain can open very wide ~80% I think, if he is very good postflop mabye 100% because he realize equity with his hands if you call, you simply fold to much, even against tight players you can widen up your range in that spot, call more, 3bet is okay. BBvsBU, you have 30% VPIP means that you 3bet ~7% and, call 23% and fold ~70%? Even bad regulars with a bit knowledge about HUD-Stats only click on "raise 2bb" with any two cards and exploit you, do you really want to be victim of easy exploitations?

I'll show you how to fix those leaks next days

subscribed to post - awesome discussion looking forward to some advise as my stats are fairly similar -50bb from BB but I got my SB to -20, think its my biggest leak now is BB play defending ranges & post flop x/r

Hey,

as promised I'll show you how to fix preflop-leaks in the blinds with help of simple pokermath. I think it will be my longest post in English I've ever written, it is tough for me, so please lenient with me when I make obv mistakes in spelling and grammar. Furthermore I think that I can only cover one or two spots today, the rest comes between Christmas and New Year.

I hope you are familiar with the term "realization factor (R)" I'll use that sometimes in my post and it is important to be familiar with that to understand that approach, if you don't know what it is ---> http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/estimating-equity-realization-1375961/ or just google.

Firstly I want to take the "simplest spot" BBvsSB. I think you are stronger than the average on NL10 in BBvs.SB (because of your stats) but you can gain more EV.

There is more than one method to built ranges for that spots, I'll show you a way in which I think it is best to implement and apply for players who are not playing poker for living or without strong math background but we still have to do some math now.

I use Power-Equilab for my calculations with ranges, I think equity calculators are more necessary than HM2 or PT4 to become good at poker. There are some for free out there, with the normal "equilab" you can do some great things too, if you use it, I can show you how to built ranges with my method too, it is nearly the same but a paid programm like Power-Equilab or Pokerranger has much more power and is way more userfriendly

Okay let's start:

In Theory we want to make the weakest hands in villains range indifferent between raise or fold, if villains weakest hand in the SB is 65o, we have to construct ranges which give this 65o an EV ~0,00. Same for BU vs. Blinds but we have to include the SB-defend now or if we sit in the SB we have to include the BB. I think the best way to construct some solid defaultranges is to take a standard range and after that you can adjust. We don't want to be 100% precisely, we want to calculate and want to get a "feeling" what works and which range the math allows us.

BBvsSB


Spot 1: 3bb openraise, 40% Range (the frequency is not that important, my goal is to build a range which works against all kind of frequencies)

Villains range (approximated)





We get 2:1 pot odds, means that we can call with hands with 33%+ Equity (1/(2+1) = 0.3333) against the whole range. There are some hands which have these 33% equity and more but this equity is not robust or the hands have bad playabilty, thats why we have to adjust the equity for fringehands. Keep in mind, we close the action, whenever we close the action and get good odds, we can call a lot, no matter how big the pot is (for example, we 3bet 75s and villain makes a very small 4bet ---> call). That is one reason why it will be no problem if villains weakest hand in his range is not 0EV but more -EV but only in this particular spot. We only make mistakes if his weakest hand has a higher EV than zero in raising first in. BBvsSB is a clear "money-spot" for us and we have to work on this to make more money.

Here are all hands with 33%+ "raw" equity:






Now we have to adjust this equity. I'm on the looser side because I think it works well. Rule of thumb (for that spot): All suited hands with straight-potential realize 100% of equity. All other suited hands realize well, I think 95% (R=0.95). I think offsuit connectors realize 100% equity too. Offsuit-one-gapper 95% (mabye more, there are some disputes about equity realization between pros, but for now, it is good and "tight/safe") , offsuit-three-gapper 90%. All other offsuit-hands with straight-potential 85% and suited trash or something like K3o between 80-85% (really bad hands imo, just fold or 3bet, but more on this later).

Now we have the handgroupings and can adjust the required equity.

Adjstued Equity (AE) = Required Equity / R

Suited junk/offsuit one-gapper (R=0.95): AE = 0.33 / 0.95 = 0.3473 = 34.7%

Offsuit-two-gapper (R=0.9): AE = 36.67%

other offsuit-hands with straight-potential (R=0.85): AE = 38.82%

offsuited junk/K3o-types (R=0.85-0.80): AE = 38.82% - 41.13% (thats our space for adjustments)

Now, take group for group and find out hands which we can play (important note: that are hands where the EV(call) should be higher than EV(fold), no 3bets included yet).


Suited junk/offsuit one-gapper (R=0.95): AE = 0.33 / 0.95 = 0.3473 = 34.7%




75o is close, if we'll need more hands to call, we'll take it.

Offsuit-two-gapper (R=0.9): AE = 36.67%




other offsuit-hands with straight-potential (R=0.85): AE = 38.82%

only Q8o

offsuited junk/K3o-types (R=0.85-0.80): 38.82% - 41.13%

K7o ---> easy call, K6o okaish, rest meh/bad


Now we have the foundation for our defend-range. All these hands are +EV calls or 3bets (we take some top fold range for 3bet bluffs when we construct the 3bet range):






The next step is to construct a 3bet range. It is a bit "trial and error". I like mixed strategies but for simplicity and because of the fact that most players not aware of range distributions, I try pure strategy now and only weight the (imo) closest hands.

There is no good rule of thumb for value-3bets in terms of equity some hands are obv value3bets some hands are close furthermore I dont like balanced black/white ratios between bluffs and valuecombos. There are some hands with EV(3bet) > EV(call) but you cannot classify them into bluff OR value. If you have questions or suggestions about the 3bet-range you can ask or write it

I want to be very polarized in that spot because it is hard to defend a wide SB-range and a lot of players simply fold to much in that spot.

My suggestion:




red = 3bet/defend (call or shove) ---> I think with Axs you can shove sometimes but not always, call should be close but not totally bad
blue = 3bet/fold
green = call
brown = fold

Freqencies:

3bet:15.8%
call: 50.7%
fold: 33.5%

We are not ready yet. Please note, it is the first suggestion, maybe it is not the best play (but way better than typicall freqencies on low stakes + rake is not included, but I think rake is overrated for defend-spots, mabye you can fold slightly more because of rake) and maybe I can get trouble against wide 4bets because I want to call often against 3bets and my 3bet/fold-frequency is very high for a strategy with a lot of calls against 4bets.

Now we have to test this strategy. We have to do a bit math for that.

I wrote "... weakest hand in villains range indifferent...", that is what we will calculate now.

We have to calculate the EV of stealing with the weakest hand in villains range from villains view. Villain raises ~40% and the weakest hand in his range is 64s which can't call a 3bet:

Formula (explained)

EV(steal;64s) = Frequency(fold)(1.5 ---> deadmoney) + Frequency(call)(6 - potsize after call - * AE for 64s; R=0.9 I think - 2.5 - investment - ) + Frequency (3bet)(-2.5 - investment)

short:

EV(steal;64s) = F(fold)(1.5) + F(call)(6*AE - 2.5) + F(3bet)(-2.5)

Equity(64s) against our callingrange: raw: 39.63% adjusted: (Equity*0.9 ---> 0.9 because OOP) 35.67%

EV(steal;64s) = 0.335(1.5) + 0.507(6*0.3567 - 2.5) + 0.158(-2.5) = 0.5025 + (-0.182) + (-0.395) = -0.076bb
(I hope it's correct, slightly hangover today)

Thats a really good outcome and a really good strategy against 40% openraise. Villain can't steal +EV anymore (do that calculation against your own strategy, after that, do it with 32o and R for 32o = 0.75).


If you play that way, you'll destroy any openraising-strategy and villain have only two options to play against that strategy. Option 1) openraise tighter ---> very good for you, mabye 70% of the time you'll get the SB for free! Option 2: limp the SB in order to restore the equilibrium (in other words: in order to gain more EV with his range).

With that range you have some space (is that the right word? or "room"?) for explotive play. Against the 40%-guy you can fold K5o and 3bet K6o instead, against really tight players you can fold a bit more (but not that much because against tighter ranges the odds are the same and the equities decrease not that much). You are good against loose openraiser in the SB with that strategy, he is going to exploit himself if he raises wide against that strategy.

With that set of tools you can build BBvsSB-Ranges against any sizing. This preflop-math is a lot of work but if you really want to get better you have to do that math. If you only copy the range, you'll never understand why you play that way.

I think I have only time again after Christmas to answer questions but I'll try it if I find some time.

I don't double checked the numbers, if you find any mistakes, please post it and I'll fix it

Oh, I can't edit: @Archinator : sorry, no "NL10", I forgot that you are playing higher, your stats should be better than average on lowstakes too but as I wrote there is a lot of potential for improvement

@eroticjesus Amazing post, I wouldn't worry about your English btw I found it very easy to follow! It's 'room for exploitive play' instead of space encase your wondering.

I think you made a slight mistake in your maths. The open raise is 3x so investment should be -3 or the pot should be 5 instead of 6 if we're doing 2.5x.

A few questions:

Is realisation factor the amount we realise our equity by making it to showdown or does it go further by taking into account the size of the pots we win and lose with the hand (i.e implied and reverse implied odds)? So a hand like K3o has particularly poor realisation because it's got reverse implied odds?

What software is that your using? I have flopzilla which is good for looking a hands vs. ranges but it can't do range vs. range.

You mentioned some hands have higher EV that aren't bluffs or value. I'm guessing there hands like KT which I'd presume are more +EV as a 3bet because we remove the reverse implied of AK, reduce their realisation to 0 for the ones that fold and greatly reduce that of the ones that call because we have position and the aggression in the hand? However unless SB is defending wide we're better off using the part of our range that can't call because he's going to be strong when he calls so we're going to give up a lot post-flop?

You mentioned adjusting to my opponents SB open frequencies. How many hands do you need for SB steal to make an adjustment/how do I work out the standard deviation to work out a confidence interval? Also is the most important factor post flop skill when adjusting, because their realisation factor drops so I can play wider ranges?

The 3bet frequencies are they for the blue ones? I would of thought 3betting JJ+ 100% would be optimal?

I've analysed my BB strategy Vs. the average 38% SB strategy

Worse opening hand K4. Has 43% raw equity against my range

EV(steal;K4o) = Frequency(fold)(1.5 ---> deadmoney) + Frequency(call)(6 - potsize after call - * AE for K4o; R=0.8 I think - 3 - investment - ) + Frequency (3bet)(-3 - investment)

EV steal (K4o): (50%)(1.5) + (40%)(6*0.43.6*0.8 - 3) + (10%)(-3)
K4o= 0.75 -0.3744 -0.3
=0.0756

So this means he's making 7.6bb/100 with the bottom of his range Vs. my range? Linked to my first question, will it be smaller than 7.6bb/100 because with my tighter range, R will be lower because of reverse implied odds? So for K4o to have EV=or

2.5 is right because the 0.5 from the small blind is already posted, so it doesn't belong to the SB anymore. He's risking 2.5bb's to steal 1.5bbs that are already posted with a 3x raise

Ah yeah, good point, ty Matt

Re-calculating the maths

EV steal (K4o): (50%)(1.5) + (40%)(6*0.436*0.8 - 2.5) + (10%)(-2.5)
K4o= 0.75 -0.1628 -0.25
=0.337 or 33.7bb/100


so R would have to be 0.47 and obviously a tighter range wouldn't make that much of an impact. So I'm currently very exploitable

Guys,

I was ill during the last week and still feel bad, I think I can answer after New Year's Day

No problem, I hope your feeling better for the New year!

I look forward to your next post

So since reading your post and watching few videos on post flop play I've dramatically improved my BB strategy and this has been the result!



Small sample but even so 95CI is -5;27 so pretty likely it's made a big improvement already!

@eroticjesus I got a notification from you on this post but I can't see anything. Did your post get deleted?

I liked your post

More on BB vs BU defense in ~10 days, I am on vacation for a week.

I actually did some work on this today after reading this post a few days ago. I saw Adam using a program called power equilab that has ability to put in an entire range and then color code groupings. I did all the SB and BB defense based on some ranges that I found on a vid I watched months backed. I liked the ranges and saved them. I would be really interested in posting them and seeing what others thought about them. I was able to break them down into Cold Calls, 3bet bluffs and 3bet for value.

I would be interested to see and hear the feedback from the members. I do agree and understand with some that say you have to be more dynamic with your ranges and just using a range chart isn't enough. I can say I don't follow these to charts exactly for a couple reasons. Firstly, I agree and I try and base some of my ranges on player style, stats etc, however, it is nice to have a baseline to go off of with unknowns or regs. Secondly, some of the ranges kind of scare me. They are fairly balanced ranges coming from someone who played much higher stakes than micros. I am pretty sure I don't 3 Bet bluff enough but always felt that until my post flop play got better I didn't want to risk it. I felt like I would be lighting money on fire. Over time I have increased my 3 betting but still not up to the number that seems to be tossed around as a good percentage. It also just always seemed to me that people at the low micros like 2NL and 5NL just don't like to fold and think that you are always bluffing, so when I would 3 bet bluff I would just get called a lot and with out the post flop skills I would just get crushed.

So back to the charts. Problem is I have screen shots of them but have no idea how to post them on this forum and size them correctly, so if anyone could help with that I would love to post them and see what the feedback is

Amazing post erotic Jesus. Would really like to hear your thoughts on the BB defend vs BU i because i really feel that it's hard to calculate how wide to defend here also because it's even harder to realize our equity when we are oop. I've calculated that we need about 22 % equity (if we assume that SB has folded) vs a minraise from BU if we give him a 50 % stealing range but again i dont know how to weight our Realization factor (R) with the different hands.
If you have time one day i would really appreciate a respond from you on this.