Eliminating Likelihoods

Posted 7 years ago

Hi everyone!

I'm a returning player to NLHE, I left last year as I only played poker to pay for something I wanted, and after I got it I felt like I shouldn't risk anymore.

Anyway I'll stop waffling; I'm studying ranges currently and there's something I don't get. Going through hand examples and watching coaches play, I don't understand how sometimes we can be certain that an opponent won't hold a particular rank of card. I often see or hear the expression "He won't have a jack in his range" or "The king on the river will likely improve his range".

I have a fundamental understanding of ranges (positional awareness, player tendencies, 3-Bet frequency etc.) but I can't follow when watching a player and they will say "He's unlikely to have a 9", or something similar. What kind of action suggests that we can discount particular cards from another player's range?

Also, I know this is a fairly general topic so I hope I have posted it in the right forum section. If not then thanks for taking the time to read it and you may as well answer it for me!

Thanks!
fawltyfelix

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fawltyfelix

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Posted 7 years ago
You need to kind of think of the ranges and how they progress through each street like a funnel. At the start or top of the funnel they are quite wide and with each street and each given action the range narrows. If you have an equity program like equilab you can actually do this street by street and visualize it to some degree. At the start of a hand all players start with a possible 100% of hands, but with each action and each street the percentage of hands they can have have reduces..

An extreme example would be something like UTvMP 3bet. UT opens from 12-15% of hands and a MP 3b v UT is going to be quite narrow. Maybe 2-4% of hands. Basically going to be KK+ with a some bluffs mixed in. Some people might have AK mixed in there as well. Depends on the player type really. Alot of times you can use HUD stats to see what percentage of hands people are playing in the different scenarios. Then if UT calls, the amount of hands they have from that original 12-15% reduces. Then if MP cbets the flop and UT calls, the hands each of them can have may reduce some more and so on.

Really just boils down to knowing what the different hand ranges are for different preflop scenarios, then knowing the hand types people continue with on each street when there is a bet or a check/call or a check/raise and learning how those different ranges interact with the different board textures.

There is also combinatorics. So each hand in poker has a given amount of combos that it can have. Pairs have 6 combos, suited hands have 4 combos and offsuit hands 12 combos. Basically if you have a given card or the board has a card it reduces the likelihood, or blocks, your opponent from having combos of hands with that card in it. Good poker players use those blocker effects to make decisions on what actions to take and to determine the likelihood of given holdings that their opponent may or may not have.

Don't have a specific example in response to your questions, but hearing a coach say something like, "He's unlikely to have a 9" is just because given previous action he just doesn't have very many 9x in his range. The UT open might be a good example of that actually. For most standard UT opens, the only 9x they are likely to have is A9s T9s 98s. Not everybody is even going to open all of those hands from UT.

I am sure some other members will have some better examples to add to this
Posted 7 years ago
First of all, thank you for such a detailed reply. Considering ranges like a funnel through the various streets is actually a logical and interesting way of looking at it that I hadn't thought of before.

Yeah I have read some on combinatronics and have a fair understanding of blockers and the like, I think if I encounter any scenario where a player says that the opponent shouldn't have a particular hand then I will hopefully remember to copy it and paste it here so I could get some feedback.

Thank you nonetheless, I realise there is a lot to consider with ranges and it's not something I can learn optimally in a week.
Posted 7 years ago*
Ok here's one of many examples I can think of which crops up in a video. The hand happens at 09:50 on the right hand table:

https://www.pokervip.com/coaching-videos/sky-poker-review-strategy-10nl

Jon is playing on Sky at 10/10. In EP, he calls a raise with 5h5s and button calls, as does UTG.

The flop is 7s Ah 4h. It is checked round and 2h comes on the turn. Checked to Button, who bets 40p. Jon calls, which I can understand. UTG folds

The river comes a 7c and JOn checks, then button bets £1.00 into a pot of £2.03 and Jon calls and beats a bluff of 9s 10s.

My hand reading is not all it could be, I put the button on a rag Ace and maybe Kh somewhere in his hand. I didn't believe him for a 7 but I would have bet that Jon was behind as it's a fairly scary board for third pair with a potential flush out there. I could have put him on something like Kh 10h for a flush hand, but since the action was initially quite dry, I thought smaller pairs like 66-99 could have been there too. These are the sorts of hands I would normally find a fold on if I were in Jon's shoes but like I said, I could definitely improve my hand reading; Jon didn't think he had an Ace but I believed that he could well have had a trashy one like Ad4d, something along those lines.

I suppose I just need to review spots like this more.
Posted 7 years ago
Jon actually says why in the vid and I agree with what he is saying. UTG actually opened, Jon cc in MP and BU cc. UTG x the flop and so does Jon. In most cases if BU had a FD on the flop BU would bet it after 2 people have checked to him. He would probably also bet any ace that he would have, there are 2 people in the pot and you have a FD and maybe some other draws out there. If you had either you would probably want to bet the flop and get heads up with someone and not give 2 people free cards. I think Jon put him on a KhX type of hand when the flush complete and when the 4 card flush bricks Jon just thinks that he is bluffing a missed 4 card flush. He shows up with complete air. HIs bets are pretty small too. If he is trying to rep the flush or any other strong hands why is he only betting .40 into 1.29 then 1.00 into 2.03 on the river. You would think if he had a flush he would be betting bigger.