Hi all,

I have been analyzing my results when i tripple barrel bluff and im wondering how profitable this should be compared to x/folding the river once we decided to barrel turn.

I have defined a tripple barrel bluff as a spot where i tripple barrel and have less then top pair by the river, of course this is not exact as we some times turn top pair into a bluff or we value bet a hand that becomes second pair by the river thinly.

Defined this way i have a result of -13 bb/100 for 180 hands where i did tripple barrel bluff in a sample of 300000 hands.

My overall tripple barrel is 1022 hands so i tripple barreld 1022-180 = 842 times for value.

I compare this to spots where i double barrel and check fold the river which shows a result of -16 bb/100 for 158 in the same 300000 hand sample.

So at least my tripple barrel bluffs outperform double barreling and check folding the river.

Now i'm stuck with two questions:

1. Is the result of -13/bb100 reasonable or am i picking realy bad spots? is 180 occurences even enough to say anything meaningfull? I can imagine that this is a very specific spot and therefore requires a lot less hands compared to estimating ones overall winrate.

2. Given I tripple barrel 842 times for value and 180 times as a bluff i bet 4.6 value hands for every bluff on the river. From a GTO point of view we should bet about 2 (dependant on sizing) value hands for every bluff. I play 20NL and 50NL and i am inclined to think we should bluff less at these stakes as players tend to call down too light hence my lower ratio but im wondering if this correct. What are other peoples ratios and toughts about this topic?

Thanks