First and second session went well, I am running good, which is nice, but I was lost in some spots today and even after I analyzed with Snowie, I am not quite sure if my plays were maxEV. Dunno, on my best days, were I play my A++ game, I think I would master them, but today was more like B+ game. Anyways, I feel more confident again and I hope I can motivate myself to grind a lot in March.

Here is something, you guys might find interesting:

Both of them play pretty much the same stats postflop and preflop over a decent sample. But one seems to play his ranges better, respectively seems to play generally better ranges. Just an interesting hint, that even if the stats look very nice, villain could be a huge fish






Yes, 1st player runs under EV gnarly, that is true. But even if he runs exactly EV-wise, he's still a loser pre RB.

And no, none of that graphs is mine But I have to admit that I've won a lot from the first one and the second one is giving me headaches and nightmares on the tables haha

Really cool thread. I am enjoying following it. I think it is pretty cool that you give back by helping newer players, sharing your knowledge here and also sharing your story as it goes.

Thanks

Hey man,

thanks for joining my thread! I am very happy that you like it

how often do you look uup villains who you play against .
how do change your gameplay vs villain nr 1 for example

Change hero in hem2 to see someone else stats and graph. If we have their hands we can see their results as if they are own

Well that depends. If I am going to play a lot against them in the future, I analyze them. When I see a strange play at the tables to, or when we have special dynamics I do that do. It is a very good way, because you can then just note some exploits you are going to use in-game against every opponent.

Villain #1 is easy. He is just the typical reg-fish. He does all that weird stuff like donking in spots you shouldn't, min-raising rivers where it makes absolutely no sense, he is waaaay too aggro and then he does not know, how to play his wide range postflop. Against him I just value 3bet more IP, and postflop just go b/b/b with my TPGK+. A very nice thing is, that he has a huge bet-sizing leak, where he raises his premiums and strong hands postflop bigger than his bluffs. So when he 4x your cBet,and you have TPNK, you can easily fold, if he just calls or raises it aorund the minimum, you can call or raise him back. Easy as that

Hey guys,

20nl started well, I just can't motivate myself to grind a lot -.- I am very lazy again, but as I have to clear a FDB and and want to get a good postion in the march race, it seems I have to
Tonight I am going to analyze two regs I play against very often, they seem to have some leaks, but look good overall. So hopefully I'll find something to exploit, because they start going on my nerves lol

Graph so far:





Some random hands, nothing special^^

#1
Against aggro reg. Pretty std imo



#2
Pre is std. Flop cBet as well. Just one of those wtfh spots He schould not have a raising range there ever, Flop's just so good for the preflop aggressor and he basically can never bluff there. So actually he is saying he has ATs, AQ or that one QQ combo, very rare slowed AA. KJs I don't see him calling. He raises 12% on the flop in a 3bet Pot, should be less in spots where ranges are tight. In-game I had not that good of a feeling, because most of them are just fkn nits and show up with scared (scared from what huh?) TT or so. Otherwise folding Top2 sucks and is pretty much burning money imo. So I went for the call. Turn... well I think I am just blessed haha. Rest is std again.
Afterwards I analyzed with Snowie and our "thoughts" were pretty much the same. But this shows just one more time, why trying to play a GTO approximated style can be -EV at microstakes. They just click buttons, but whatever^^



#3 On the flop a mixed strat is pretty nice, so call sometimes and raise sometimes. Think calling the combos with BD clubs is better. When we are raising there, I think PS is the best size. I want to raise that flop polarised. When we decide to raise a more merged range, e.g. 2Pair, FDs, Str8Ds and so, we should go for a smaller sizing.
Turn Bet is good imo. We can use this hand to balance our Turn checking range, which combines x/f and spiked BD Draw x/shoving hands. So we have still nuts in our range when we check. But don't go for that play always. Just mix it up with a good frequency. Villain seemed ingame a bit sticky and fishy, so I decided to bet.
When we decide to bet Turn, we have to jam River. Pot is just to big, Villain checks behind als his SD Value, which goes down to AcXc (yes, this is a xb indeed!), and we still have some bluffs in our range that want to make Qx fold there.
From Villains perspective, he played the hand fine. River call is very thin, but with history it's one of the better bluffcatchers, as he blocks the nuts, but theoretically he can just fold all of his one pairs. We had no history here, so yeah, call is around -5bb or so (Snowie)



#4 Pre call is super super thin, maybe it's BE. Flop is a call. He can barely raise there, we are deep and he is fucked when I am going for the 3b. So he should raise a very small, very polarised range and call tons. I don't want to make a Set fold or one of his 1-card FD bluffs, so I go for the call. T&R are std then. Yes he never has a boat there, yes a str8F is rare, but when I raise, what the f*** is going to call? Not that much imo. So guess hand is played fine.




Okidoki, that's it for today, gonna play a session l8er, but for now, I am just watching a movie and have dinner.

Cheers!

LOL, forum seems buggy, cause it won't allow me to post some written stuff under my graph. Anyways, here is what I wrote:

€2: hahaha ok, so for whatever reason I can't post more then 2 lines...

Okay, Forum seems to be fine again Todays session went well overall, but stil I keep losing the big pots where I am a huge fav. Anyways, I just can't motivate myself to put in a nice lil volume. Any ideas how I get this fixed? Yes I know, JUST DO IT

Before a session do something that gets "your poker juices flowing". So for me if I go and answer hands in the forums, see some sick upswingy graphs in the journeys or when I ussed to watch more coaching videos it just made me want to play poker. That of course is inspiration but one of the best ways to get motivated is to see the long term results starting to materialise. You end up being motivated to get more and more hands in and move up to higher stakes.

Find something that makes you love poked then prep for a session then play

Ok guys, so this spot came up lately, and I have to admit, that in-game I was like "wtfffff". Afterwards I looked up this spot in Snowie first. Snowie wants to fold > 3b > call with 55 here. When 3b, then call 4b is > fold > jam. . On the other hand, AKo should be a 4b/f here, which I am sure is a mistake against most guys, but somehow it makes sense against optimal guys. So with a theoretical approach, I end up being more confused than before.

Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $21.30 (106.5 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
MP: $33.60 (168 bb)
Hero (CO): $20.18 (100.9 bb)
BTN: $19.34 (96.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
Hero raises to $0.50, BTN raises to $1.80, Hero raises to $4.40, BTN raises to $19.34 and is all-in, Hero calls $14.94

Flop: ($38.98) T Q T
Turn: ($38.98) 8
River: ($38.98) 9

Results: $38.98 pot ($0.60 rake)
Final Board: T Q T 8 9
Hero showed A K and lost (-$19.34 net)
BTN showed 5 5 and won $38.38 ($19.04 net)

I then started to take a look at the spot from a exploitative point of view. More on this later, but let me take a short excursion first:

Too not overfold against 3b, we should defend approximatly ~50%. Basically we have to defend at least 33%, if we open to 3bb and get 3bet to 9bb. Reason is simple math: Villain invests 9bb to win 4.5bb (our open and the blinds), plus his 9bb back. So he needs us to fold 9/13.5=0.66% of the times we open. In reality, we have to overdefend there a bit, because this approach, to defend mathematically correct, only applies, when we decide to 4b only, which we should never do, because some of our hands make perfect calling hands. So we end up defending a bit more than which is correct from a theoretical point of view, because villains bluffs see a flop then and have potential, which means equity. Even a hand like 72o (extreme example, just to show what I mean) can flop a boat from time to time. So when we only defend 33%, with 4bets AND calling, villain still has autoprofit, as he still can 3bet atc pre and then just continue when he flops a good hand like 2 Pair or TPTK. This formula obv just works, if ViIllain is unknown. When we have stats, for example that he only 3bets 3% BTNvsCO, we obv have to make some adjustments.

We have to defend 50%range. Hands like suited Broadways or Pairs, or the better suited connectors make good calls. Monsters and the hands that are just borderline calling/folding hands, make good 4bets. We decide to 4b to 22b. This has to work around 58% (rounded to 60%) of the time, because we invest another 19bb to win Villains 9bb plus the blinds, and our total invest of 22bb back. 19/32.5=~60%. So Villain should defend at least 40% of his range. Now it is the same as above, this only applies, if he decides to 5b Jam only, which was a standard few years ago. Nowadays, in modern online poker, a lot of players call 4bets quite often, which is correct, as they have to make our bluffs indifferent. So let's assume he defends around 55%. Hands like AQs or JJ make good calls, Monsters and "Monster blocking combos" make good 5b jams. Villain jams to 100b, he invests another 91bb to win our 22bb+ the blinds + his invest of 100bb back. 91/123.5= 0.73%. This sounds a lot and, much more important, isn't correct. The plain FE is 73%, true that. But when we call, his bluffs don't have zero equity. When he jams small pairs and suited wheel Aces, his bluffs have, against a reasonable calling range, still around 30% equity. Let's do the math: 73% of the time, he makes an insta-profit of 32.5bb, which sums up to EV = 23.5bb. 27% of the times he jams,he gets called, where he has 30% equity, which sums up to EV = -8bb. So his jam would be +EV with an profit of 15.5bb overall. So you see, he needs way less FE, to make this a break even play. Too not let villain gain autoprofit with 5b jamming a lot here, we need to either call more or make less range misplays earlier, which means our opening/4b range could be exploitable, because we have too many bluffs that cannot stack-off to a 5b jam.

And this is the thing, that villains seems to exploit in this hand. My standard opening range is quite wide, but works on 20nl so far: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+ (410 Combos/~31% range).

Passive defend against BTN: JJ-66, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo-AJo, KQo (124 Combos/~9% range).

4b against BTN: QQ+, AKs, A5s-A2s, AKo, ATo, KJo (74 Combos/~6% range).

When you do the math, you'll see that a) my opening range against good villains is too wide, b) my 4b range is polarised way too bluff heavy and c) my calling range is way too capped. But in reality, this works out fine, as people tend to defend too little against aggressiveness.

So to not get exploited by light 3b/5b jams here, we should make the following adjustment: Start to open a bit tighter. Don't 4b bluff A2s-A5s, as those block villains 5b bluff jam range. 4b 99-JJ instead, as those make good stack-off hands against bluffs, as they let him drop in equity, plus we stack-off more often and his FE goes down as well. Trap KK+ from time to time, as his bluff heavy range realizes its equity very bad, which forces him to barrel a lot.

I hope I didn't make any mistakes. I read over this now 4 times, and everything seem to be fine. If you find something, which is incorrect, let me know pls.


If you haven't understand everything, feel fee to ask. There are no stupid questions, just bad answers If you find this interesting, I strongly recommend you to buy Matthew Jandas book "Applications of No Limit Hold'em". It is the nuts, the bible, THE masterpiece. It will help you, to get a good understanding of basic poker math and theory. For the mathematical part, if you wann get that into detail, read "the mathematics of poker" by William Chen. It is on my wishlist, because I heard a lot of good things about it, but it is very detailed and complex, and I suck at maths But maybe I give it a read this summer.

So, gonna start a session now. I hope I can manage to be a bit more productive in the Snowie thread from my bro @CrazyCookie and in our skype channel. I didn't made one single session when he plays the software, shame on me :-/ But I promise to improve!

Cya folks!

Hi Very nice blog , will follow . Lets hope I am gonna join you at nl20 next month on MG.
GL and keep us updated

Hey mate,

thanks for joining! Stay away, competition is hard enough already

jk, best of luck to you!

In regards to defense frequencies, I do t think we need to go that wide. Reason being firstly other players will help us defend in this spot about 7% of the time. Moreover oop we end up not realising as much equity after calling so flatting with SC to then give up a lot post isn't great. 4b 99-jj is not going to be good at anything below 100nl as people don't 5b bluff enough to make them +EV stack offs so you then have to rely on them folding more to 4b which may be OK but probably similar EV to just calling in the first place.

And yes get on team viewer!! Need to get some live Snowie chat going

Yes, I forgot to mention that. We can fold a bit more, because others help with the defending.

Of course, spots where we just flat call a 3b OOP, with very marginal holdings, aren't great. We don't have the initiative, we have no position, and we have a mediocre hand -> three essentiell things, that will not make us win a lot of money. And at micros stakes, it is sure the best, to even overfold against 3bets, cuz most of the guys are way to tight when it comes to re-raising. Just wanted to give a rough overview, what would be right from a theoretical point of view. 3b ranges have to be pretty wide to make SC a profitable flat, as they won't realise their equity very often, as you said. I am totally with you here. We would have to move around postlop fairly often, which obv just will work, when villain is light there a lot.
The exploit, to stack-off 99-JJ obv is only good, if villain is capable of 5b jamming light, as he did in the hand I posted. So against most opponents it would be not very good, but when they do that regularly, it will become a profitable play. But we need more sample ofc, just one time I saw him doing that against me, and this is way too little.

I like your blog and your posts
Will follow this for sure

wow, so many followers! thank you guys a lot, I am very happy with so many people joining

VEEEEERY interesting spots came up last session, I hope my thoughts on every street and action are comprehensible







Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $17.75 (88.8 bb)
BB: $20 (100 bb)
UTG: $39.21 (196.1 bb)
MP: $40.36 (201.8 bb)
CO: $8.68 (43.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $21.37 (106.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A A




2 folds,



CO calls $0.20,



Hero raises to $0.90,



SB raises to $1.60,



BB raises to $20 and is all-in,





CO folds,



Hero calls $19.10,



SB folds



Flop: ($41.80) A J K (2 players, 1 is all-in)




But wait... what if... Turn Qx, River Tx!?!?!?!? or even worse: Jx, Jx !!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!!?!?!??!?!?!?!?




Dealing: Turn...




Turn: ($41.80) 4(2 players, 1 is all-in)







River: ($41.80) 2 (2 players, 1 is all-in)




Results: $41.80 pot ($0.60 rake)
Final Board: A J K 4 2



BB showed A J and lost (-$20 net)



Hero showed A A and won $41.20 ($21.20 net)












I bet I will run so fkn bad for this the next quintuple mirrion hands -.-