This winrate stuff, everything is so wierd

Thanks! I have noticed that you have a blog too. Looking forward to see your progress!

how is it weird? :') I'm just saying that you can have an observed win rate over any number of hands. if you win 100bb in 100 hands then your observed winrate for those 100 hands is 100bb/100 hands. Your true winrate will not be known for many hundreds of 1000's of hands as not until then will you converge on your mean winrate- which is just a better way of saying after variance "levels out".

So 10bb/100 imho is not possible

I understand what you are trying to say (at least I hope I understand).
But still, I think games at nl10 are very easy and 10bb/100 is doable over 50-100k hands.
I know the guy who has 5bb/100 at nl500 zoom over 425K sample. Is this true winrate?Compared to this 10bb/100 at nl10 seems like a very easy job.

But, we never find it out who is right. 50-100k hands at nl10 play only guys who are not able to move up, that means they are not good enough to have 10bb/100.
If someone is able to have 10bb/100 over 50k, is it true winrate?

I am still beginner in term of cash games and see planty of room to improove my game and winrate.

....And I am not able to scroll in text field on my phone

true winrate is theoretically never observed as your skill level will change over time, player field will change over time and variance will always have an effect. I'm not saying it isn't possible, I'm saying for someone new to cash games and who is playing at 10nl because that is where they are at a winrate of 10bb/100 will not be achieved. For your friend it may well be but its far better to not even think about win rate until you have hands to prove it

It's a relative lt pointless convo tho as like you said it would be dumb to stay at 10nl to prove your win rate if you can move up

Terrible session today, 350hands and stoploss...will play again tomorrow and hopefully nice session is waiting for me somewhere.



This is 2nd loosing session in row, nothing terrible but loosing is always sad for me. Need to do some review to find out where I am spewing money. But biggest problem is that I really don't have a time. I am Working on super fun project related to online gambling right now and also pushing some extra hours if neccessary. When I am home I want to play not study. I guess only solution is to find someone for private coachings session.

Any ideas? Jon, what do you think? Are you doing some private coachings for reasonable prize?

NOVEMBER - My 1st month.

Well, November is over, and its time to summarize.
I started to play at 3rd or 4th of november and my goal was to play 15K hands and try to move from nl4 to nl10. Now I can say I succeed. Paddy welcomed me at the tables with nice, actually it was super awesome sweet heater and I was able to move up very quickly. Everything went my way at the tables and I crushed. Unfortunately, later I've realized that I can not run like this forever. But this is another Story. Now is time for November graphs for graphlovers.

All hands:


November Stats by stakes:


NL4 in November:


NL10 in November



December goals:
[] 10K hands.
[] study, 4h at least
[] stay on the ground and do not move up too early
[] post at least one giraffe
[] enjoy christmas holidays in Slovakia

Good luck at the tables.

Hey all,

As I promised, here is my graph from nl10 after 10K hands. winning 1.5bb/100 pre RB.



In december, I lost 15BI over 3.5K hands (-30bb/100 ups), but I will try hard to win it back until 18thof november and then on 19th I fly to Slovakia.

@CrazyCookie you were right but I will not give up, and will fight at nl10 for whole month. I am just not ready for NL20 yet.

I'll keep you updated guys how I will turn it around(flex)

And just for you, one picture of view from the hotel room in Den Haag. Where we were with my GF during weekend.

I think paddy trying to tell me, that I should give up...




20BI, was like - KKvsAA, AA,KK,QQ to sets. Not sure if I am able to beat this...

Damn man sorry to see that downswing. Everything was looking like you could recover it but this will obv hurt the system.

How many days is this 4.5k hands over? What do you do about stop losses or stop wins?

That downswing hurts but I've been through that kind of stuff myself and you can obviously recover! If you need to go down a level just do it and try to stay as focused and motivated as possible. I usually watch motivational videos when I need to.

Jon, I kind of disagree nowadays regarding stop loss or stop wins. If you consider the long run, what's the point of stopping either losing or winning? What's 2 or 3 buy ins more o less?

I mean... you should stop if you can't keep playing decently well. If you are on tilt or whatever. But if you lose some buy ins and that doesn't affect your game, you just can keep on playing. Why not?

Of course up to some extent losing affects your game but I mean as long as you don't go and shove all in preflop with 55 it's ok!

I think there are so many different levels to tilt though, that a stop loss is just sensible. Like you may not think you are on tilt but if you just burnt 5 buyins straight its going to be in the back of your mind even if you think you are on top of it. I mean I don't think there is anything wrong with taking a long break rather than the rest of the day off, so say a three hour break, refresh and come back but after a big loss I think it is always best to just stop and recover.

Unlucky on the downswing mattusko and I hope things pick up for you soon. Out of interest are you playing reg tables or speed?

4.5K hands were 5 sesn during 8 days in december. I try to stop playing when I loose 5 BIs, that means i check sit out on next BB. When I have winning session i try to play as much as i can until i am too tired or on winning tilt. Winnig tilt is much bigger problem for me than any other kind of tilt.


I hope I can. will keep updating the blog so you can see how it is going I am not sure about going back to nl4, probably will stay at nl10.


I am playing 6-8 regular tables.

Thanks guys for the stopping here and your messages. This is what I need, to talk about it a little bit.

Right after i finished my session yesterday, I go to cashier and cashed 310$ and left just few bucks there. I was really surprised how much money i had left in my account after this swing. so it means still 210$ profit for after few days of playing. Nothing lifechanging but still sweet money and i will buy somethig for my GF. this was my initial idea. Do you know what happend 10 min after i confirm cashout? this: "WTF i just did, how i will play tomorrow"

Well maybe it is good thing that I did the cash out. I can clear my head plus I can finally (after month) edit some videos and make progres in my awesome short amsterdam clip(movie). I have GoPro Hero 3 and i love to shot whit it. Also i am going to see 3rd part of HOBBIT tonight at 23:59 and really looking forward to it.

Anyway, I can deposit anytime, but will probably wait few days. Meantime, I can send my recorded video to Jon (i hope you are looking forward to do leakfinder form me:) I will post some hands to learn something and finally reach 50 posts :D)

I will share some biggest pots and biggest spews with you, so you can see how fish i am. but not today, later.

Mattusko vs nl10 - 1:1, now is my turn.

Hey guys,

Yesterday I made deposit, because I had mood to play some poker. I load up some nl4 tables and played almost 2K hands yesterday and today. Here is a graph and I can finnaly check first of my december goals


[x] post at least one giraffe
I also "study" for 1-2 hours, I was watching some videos here on poker VIP and also I went through some of my bigest pots where I probably made some mistakes.

Today, I found out that 2/2 NLH is playing in Holand casino and I am thinking to go there for few hours. I have never been in amsterdam casino, and there are usually only 2/4 NLH games running. Buy-in for this 2/2 game is 50e-400e and I was thinking about 2 or 3 100e bullets.

I was also thinking about plans for 2015 and i have some cool ideas

GOGOGO greenline, you can do it



btw: I wasn't at casino on last sunday.maybe another time

Sweet!

December




Hey guys, i know its a bit early, but december is over for me. I finish this soon, not because of "Bad run":X, but I am going to Slovakia, to spent there Christmas hollidays. I am so excited! I'll be back on 29th of december and for 89.7% I wont play until 3rd of January. But I have a lot of things to think about, so I will write some kind of sumarize of my 2014 cash game advanture. Also I would like to say lot about my plans for 2015, main topic will be STOP CLICKING, START THINKING.And I hope with this spirit I will crush during 2015. If not i will keep playing anyway, because i love the game

Enjoy the hollidays, and keep crushing for the rest of the 2014! See you soon guys!
mattusko

Nice thread for me. I am new to poker and learning the rules by reading an amazing book Poker by the Book by John Anhalt which has helped me a lot to improve my skill of poker. I will must follow the direction from this thread of 6 max cash game.

Small Christmas update...
We were playing home cash yesterday. 9 player all very good friends and we play nl10 in euros. After 6 hours of play and 70 pints, we made 38,5 buyins. Biggest loser lost 9bi and biggest winner won 13bi. I finished 2nd with 5bi up. It was awesome night and looking forward for next year.

@wilson, thanks mate! Hope you are doing good on the tables:)
Hope you are all doing well and enjoying Christmass time.

Sounds like an epic game. Do you have a proper poker table or on something else? I love home games, by far the best, and there rake free!

I get annoyed when people want to play SNGs at homegames, it sucks if you're out early as you can't do much.

Plans for the new year buddy?