Time for an update. I had a feeling I was running pretty good. Now I'm running really bad. Of course knew there would come BE or losing stretches.
Probably my skill edge is also lower on 10NL than it was on 5NL. But will not give up the shot at 10NL. I do believe that I should beat 10NL when I just have an average run.

Update. Have been grinding pretty hard (for me) last days. Have kept on working on my known leaks. (BB defense being the biggest)
Trying to get the red line up a bit.
Last post I was running bad.
If I zoom out a bit and have a look at the graph I can see that my blue line is more or less the same but my red line slowly gets better.
Sample size isn't huge but over this sample size I'm satisfied with my winrate.
This is all hands from Stars zoom games. First 40k hands at 5NL and last 10k hands is 10NL.
But to be honest I think I have been running better than neutral over this sample.

Looks like coaching has paid off, how many months if that 45k hand sample over? How many coaching lessons do you get a week

That sample is 2 months. I don't have as much time for playing as I would like. I also struggle to play more than 2 zoom tables at the same time. I try to mix in sessions with 3 tables. Would been nice for volume if I was able to play 4 tables.

I don't have any scheduled coaching sessions. I had 2 sessions with Fergal Brophy in February I think, then one session with Weasel in april.
I will continue to take coaching sessions now and then.
Will have a session coming week.

But yes, coaching have been a good investment. I have learned a lot from the coaches I have used.

So main focus have been on improving winrate from the blinds.
This was my number one leak earlier.
This sample is after I started to focus on that area and got some coaching help on this area.

Time for some update. In the beginning I have been running very good. Lately variance have not been that kind to me anymore but that's not a problem as I know that time would come. Think I handled this small "downswing" better than I have done earlier in my poker journey.
Maybe I tightened up a bit but mostly I think my bad red line was caused by me making good folds to better hands.
I have stayed at 10NL through my downswing instead of taking the easy way and jump down to 5NL again.

Things I have been working on/
1. Defend blinds better
2. Improve my Cbetting.
3. Try to create a more solid OOP Cbetting strategy that allow me to defend my checking range.

Graph:

Long time since I was posting here. I changed pokersite to Unibet for a while and could not track results or stats in HM anymore.
I decided to start without depositing so started with the free 12euro cash ticket.
I managed to grind it up to 200 euros over 2 months, playing low volume and just having fun.

But then I felt for some zoom action again. Was a bit rusty in the beginning but over all I think my game has been really solid.
Here's the graph after the comeback (been running good for sure):

Maybe sample size is too small in first picture. Let's zoom out a bit and get around a 50k sample.

I have been focusing a lot on improving my winrate from the blinds. Over last 18k hands it has been improved a LOT.
Probably some of it is just variance but I'm losing money from the CO. Maybe I'm Coldcalling a bit too wide.

I wouldn't worry too much about winrate by position just yet. I've got 80K hands in this year and I don't really believe the winrate I've got - i want 150K to 250K hands before I think it'll really start to get accurate. Compare that to the 3K hands you have in each position and hopefully you'll realise you're better off looking at the vpip/pfr and some other stats as you get more hands in by position.

if you know anything about variance/normal distribution, this'll help you see what sort of samplesize you need to get close to an accurate winrate by position: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Looking at the Vpip/pfr you're mostly looking pretty good. MP looks tight, and CO is potentially a little loose (but maybe not). If you want to look into this despite the sample size, start looking at the hole cards grid and see if there are any groups of hands you're opening that you're not profiting with, eg if you're opening all offsuit aces and A2-A6 are all unprofitable, you might get an indication that you can start folding them or look at how you're playing them postflop.

Your SB open also looks low, it might be fine in tough games but you can probably exploit weak BB players much more effectively, maybe even adding BB fold to SB steal to your HUD will be enough.

Thank you for your response.
I think variance is a big part of my low CO winrate.
But I also ran some filters that showed a negative result when I'm coldcalling in the CO so maybe need to take a look on what hands I use for CC and how I play them post flop.

My RFI looks more or less as I want it to. A little bit too loose from EP (input from coaching with Adam Jones).
You think I can steal even wider from SB? Maybe I can expand it more.
I do use the BB fold vs SB steal but player pool is big so not often I have enough sample size for it.

Yeah, you're probably spot on where you'd want to be in a tough game but at micros, the majority of the player pool isn't going to exploit a wide SB range - my in-game SB RFI is like 15% higher than my pre-built range

Just to add to what @Discomfort already said, if you think about it, we don't really give much credence to overall winrate until we usually hit around a 50k sample and usually you want more to get as close to a true winrate as possible. So with that thinking in mind you would need at minimum 50k hands from each position for the positional winrates to really have any significance. Now maybe we don't quite need 50k hands per position to get a rough idea and to start investigating leaks, but I certainly wouldn't give any meaning to your winrates with only 3k hands per position. Better off looking at the other stats, like he said, to find leaks.

I don't play on stars zoom, but had a friend who did and he played 10nl 16nl and 25nl and he used to steal super wide from the SB, and BU. He said they all just folded to much from the blinds. He would obviously use the FtStl stat to decide, but he said in general the pool is super tight in the blinds so if he didn't have stats his default was to just steal. I think he might have been as high as 60% from SB, but not sure really

Thank you for input @Discomfort and @fawltyfelix . I can probably fine tune my stealing from BU and SB and expand it even further.
I have looked at winrate by position over a bigger sample as well and CO is worse than it should be.
But maybe still just variance.
I am aware of the problem of trusting winrate. That's why I'm not moving up. I want to be sure that my winrate comes from beating the game and not from running good.
How big sample size do you think it takes to at least be 90% sure?
Here's last 50k hands, can I still be a losing player that run good??

On your HM2 reports tab go to the stats and search for standard deviation and add it. Go to that poker variance calculator @Discomfort linked and you can put in your WR and the SD and it will tell you what expected results will be over x amount of hands, so you can put in 50k, 100k, whatever you want.

I took your winrate and put it in with a Standard deviation I found from an old database i had. It basically said that your chance of losing over a 50k hands sample was ~.5% So I would say that the chances of you being a losing player is probably pretty small, but your sample isn't huge yet, so that WR could be skewed. IDK tbh. You probably want to do it with what ever SD your database has.

I think when in the micros there are more advantages of moving up quicker to build bankroll faster, so for me personally, I would worry more about the bankroll management then getting a "true" wr. You have a good wr over a decent sample. So if you have a big enough bankroll, taking shots might be a good idea, but hard for me to say, that is up to you really. Beyond just building roll faster you will probably learn more as you move up and as the competition gets slightly better and you start to get into spots you haven't before and start to experience different levels of play.

Not sure what stakes this is, but if I were you and I had that wr and a bankroll of above 40 buy ins for the next stake I would move up. I tend to be more conservative on bankroll management. Other people do whats called shot taking, where they want to have say 50 buy ins at the stake they are playing. So if you are 5nl that would be $250 @ 50 buy ins. When they get 5 or 10 buy ins worth of the next stake up, above the $250, so say at $300-$350, they take a shot at the higher stake. If the bankroll falls back down to $250 they drop back down and grind it back up to that 5 or 10 buy in shot take and rinse and repeat until it sticks. Some people are more aggressive with this and might have a bottom threshold of only 40 buyins, or 30. I think I even saw some guys using 20 buy ins as there threshold. I tend to wait until my entire bankroll is at a certain level for the new stake and to know that I am a winning player at the current stake then I move up. When I went from 10nl to 20nl I started with a mix of tables too. Just for me personally, wanted to see how games were if there were major differences etc.

I don't actually think your numbers looks bad from the CO, so could be a variance thing that your wr is low there. What kind of sticks out in the CC% is that they are all almost identical in MP, CO and BU, which would lead me to believe you are playing almost the same exact range from each position, on average. IDK i would look at that. Just like your 3b% gets slightly more from each position I think your CC% should as well. I think your CC% from the CO is pretty near where mine is in my default ranges, but my MPvUT is lower than that and my BU is higher.

Hey @fredrikgudmund ,

Just read through your journey, have missed this previously!

Are you still playing on Pokerstars? There are other sites with good traffic on "zoom" type games, especially at the stakes you are playing, and with good rakeback (compared to the frig all you get at Pokerstars)

Where are you from?

@fawltyfelix , standard deviation was 75bb/100 so if I understood it correctly there is less than 0.5% chance that I'm actually a losing player at this stake.

Regarding cold calling numbers you are absolutely correct. I have been looking over the ranges and of course we should CC a lot more from BU than from MP for example.

My BR would allow me to move up. This sample was from 5NL and I have like 50BI for 10NL.
But I have promised myself to stop losing money at poker so I'm very conservative.
If I'm still a solid winner after 100k hands I will move up for sure.

I have already started to mix in some 10NL tables when I feel good about my game.

Thank you for good advice.

@AshVIP , I moved over to Unibet for a while. Grinded my roll up from zero to 200.
Missed out on the zoom action and have been back on stars for a couple of weeks.
I'm from sweden.
Rakeback is nice of course but I dont play very high volume. A normal week is something like 3-4k hands.

Have you played on iPoker before?

They have a decent "Speed" player pool, and it's not just rakeback, it's rake races, bonuses, monthly promos, so regardless of volume you can still get 60+ rakeback a month which can be a big boost to your bankroll, especially when moving up

@AshVIP I played on Coral a while ago. That's Ipoker?
Had some technical problems to get my HUD running on more than one speed table at once. (HM2)
But HUDs should be working on Ipoker?
Maybe should give Ipoker a new shot.
Any specific skin you would recommend?