Party Poker is killing me today. My Call River Eff is now down to 0.14. The worst hand I've called with today was Top 2 pair. One call with trips was pretty bad for 65bb though.
Flop I thought was alright as so many draws he could be doing this with. Turn is so small I Made the call but in hindsight I should have seen this was sizing for river jam. He was aggressive post flop as well.
On the river really he is repping TT or 88 only really. I think enough of the missed draws might see that Kx as limiting my combos and bluff so I level myself into a call that I doubt I should make.
My BR is currently down by 25% in the first 4k hands of the summer of grind challenge. If it carries on like this I won't complete it. It can't though. I'm playing decent poker I think. Calling too much is never my issue usually (aside from triple barrels with TPTK) so this must be some variance. I mean I'm making some bad plays but I think I must make less calling mistakes than the average villain so it will even out.
I feel better on this downswing in my game than I ever did on an upswing. Practice I think is helping me but cards are kicking me in the arse. Bit tilted just now as just run into the nuts a lot and got some coolers I think. Going to go shoot some bitches on COD I think. Then evaluate with a warm up where my head is at. Would be a shame to call the day this early when I have a clear day to grind for the only time ever!
Hang in there buddy. The standard deviation in fast poker variants is a touch higher than in regular games for a number of reasons from the fact that average player plays tighter to the difficulties with tracking information/table dynamics etc. Also, the perceived variance is much higher due to the sheer number of hand's you're playing per hour. I'm glad to hear that you're feeling well even though results aren't there.
K/D brag? Nah bro, I'm just a random div online these days. Not a beast anymore.
I do OK though, I win more than I lose, I shoot people more than I get shot and every now and again I hit a round like the old days where I'm untouchable. I did alright the other night.
Summer of grind continues, mental state is on point but I'm calling down too light. Top 2 pair is not enough to call 3 barrels it seems. Call Riv Eff is now up to 0.8, which is still crazy low, so I guess on this grindfest I need to play super tight. I guess with so many regs multitabling to get volume there will be less spazing but I kind of assumed that there would be bluffs as well on that basis. Perhaps just variance.
I did get stacked 3 way All In with A5s on A58J5 with a flush on board vs AA and 88. That was special. I should have folded that though I guess in reality.
I don't think I have looked at my Call Riv Eff since 2011.....I really am just an old guy playing poker now. Don't even have PT4 or HEM2 on my computer anymore lol
Bloody hell Party Poker is hard work just now. I'm still getting crushed. If it carries on like this then the Summer of Grind will be a negative for me despite the $150 bonus when I get there.
How is everyone else getting on there up against regs the whole time?
A hell for me too in 16k hands. 7 buyins down but the problem for me isn't with the regs, the problem is that i cannot win a freaking flip against shortstackers (mostly fishes) and I think I've been making some loose calls too. I just want to get to 30k hands and see how my roll will stand from there. Hope we can turn around this thing, mate! GLGLGL!
I just ran a filter for when I hit TP or better on the flop. Even in that position I'm still losing! That is absolutely amazing. Even if you gave me the head start of hitting the flop every single hand and never having to fold my blinds I still can't beat PartyPoker FastForward.
I'm about 12k hands in and I'm down now 10bi. This is the worst I've ever done on any form of poker. I've lost more from bad variance, or over a longer period from playing badly when I was at my worst mentally but this is strange.
My game preflop I think is decentish (although I think given the type of players here my 3betting range needs some work), postflop I cbet too unbalanced for value hands and don't defend my checking range nearly well enough (fold to float is like 80%) but all that should lead to my value hands paying off. The filter is too simple as it doesn't take texture into account (i.e. overpair 77 on 432montone is not the same as AA in K62r) but how can I not be making money from flopping good hands?
I'm at a bit of a loss as to how to proceed now. My mental game is still good but not perfect anymore as I'm starting to have MUBS everytime I have a hand. Its worrying about how am I going to lose this one now. I think thats why my cbetting has got unbalanced in the last few days especially as I just think if I have something I should bet now before I get outdrawn. Its helpful that I can see this on reflection which is a positive. In the old days I'd be all "I'm the worst player ever, why do I even bother trying". Now I'm more dispassionately intrigued as to how this can be overcome.
You can be dispassionate because you're working at trying to fix the problem, rather than blame the 'donks' and 'muppets' for sucking out and bad beating you. I can't help with how to proceed unfortunately, I'm getting my arse handed to me every day nearly, playing Blaze.
A well thought out and considered post. I'm absolutely sure you'll get it and move on better.
Yeah 11 buyins down too in 20k. I don't know what to do. Well I stopped playing on party and started checking my strategy. I dont want to play there anymore XD.
Here is that graph I was talking about. All hands where I saw flop and had TP or better.
Stars by way of reference. What I expect to see.
Here's what it is on Party. I was losing overall as had a date filter on. Actually I'm not quite losing from that position.
This is absolutely incredible. Both are NL10 Zoom. So given my style of play is better since then and mental state is stronger its pretty strange to be after 800 hands on Party at break even and on Stars after 800 I was winning 50BI.
on stars 1.9k hands - 2.8k you were also break even. so "This is absolutely incredible" is clearly 100% in the realms of possibility and not incredible in the slightest
Also first 800 on stars you won at the highest win rate.
Stop comparing these graphs it fucks with your mental game and makes you spot bad variance more and more. Honestly the post you put is probably the least productive thing you could do!
Just because its happened before doesn't mean its not 'incredible' in the sports commentary sense of the word!
Messssiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!! Oh an absolutely incredible strike Jeff!
Actually Clive, he's scored 99 goals in the last 2 years so its very much not incredible.
I know you have very strong views on how to approach but I disagree this is the most unproductive thing I could do. It might not be the best but my mental game strength now is built on seeing variance as out of my control and focussing on what I can control. This helped me to put into context that my technical game is not totally broken. My loss rate when I miss the flop has actually improved (the flip side of this graph), my preflop ranges are a lot less exploitable but I am just running into problems with my made hands. I can then review some of this to see where I'm making mistakes and correct. Basically I've got passive in the last few K and I'm recfocussing on sizing and cards I will be barrelling on to work through the downswing.
The least productive thing I could do would be to whinge and beat myself up like I used to. I guess the best would be to not even notice results and focus on improving like the downswing wasn't happening but I'm in a spot where the downswing is breaking my BR on party so I need to pay attention to that so in that world this is the best middle ground I think.
As a lurker, I've noticed that your posts have become more positive as you've moved on. We each tread our own path and do whatever it takes; nice job so far imo.
You can't use football as a comparison :') you have showwed that in a massive upswing in this filter you can have a 1k period of break even. It IS unlucky, I'm not denying that at all. It sucks and I'm in a downsing myself and have been where you are re breaking my roll before, but looking at something like this is really pointless. Knowing you are down and making sure you are not playing underolled and that your mental game is still OK is one thing. Actively looking for exactly where you are running bad is completely different
If you use the graphs and say "OK, I'm not winning as much on the flop, let's see if I'm playing the same" then look and see if you are cbetting more/less calling more/less raising more/lesz slow playing more/less or any other mistake it would be good. But using them just to either "ease your mind it is varience" or make you feel bad for running bad, is like dropping your icecream on the floor that you really wanted and constantly watching a video of it trying to blame something/ make yourself feel bad for loosing it. The better thing to do would be to see if it was a mistake or not, then go buy another ice cream and make sure you don't do the same mistake if there is one.
Your original post was about variance and comparing ti to stars and how incredibly bad you are running... that doesn't imply you were doing what I said :') If you were then its fine ofc.
And you used football a game of probably 85%-90% skill to poker which is more like 55% skill over 800 hands. In football you look at a goal in isolation because each one, except penalties I guess, will be unique. In poker we can't compare 800 hands to 7.5k hands and treat it as unique.
My example was about bad luck/ making mistakes and how we approach it mentally so I cna
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