Grocker6

When draws miss here (I don't expect 79 and all that business) am I just to keep calling down or believe more since this is played just like a set?
I feel the fold button just needs to be a little bigger sometimes in these spots.

Player 5(SB) $4.94 - VP:45 PFR:0 AF:1.0 W:40|75 STL:0|50 3B:0| CB:|50 N:3.50 Hands:22
Player 6(BB) $10.04 - VP:27 PFR:27 AF:Inf. W:67|50 STL:100|100 3B:0| CB:50| N:-0.21 Hands:11
Player 3(UTG) $6.96 - VP:56 PFR:13 AF:7.0 W:43|33 STL:25|0 3B:0|0 CB:|100 N:0.85 Hands:16
Me(MP) $10
Player 2(CO) $10.05 - VP:14 PFR:14 AF:Inf. W:0| STL:20|100 3B:11| CB:100| N:0.05 Hands:22
Player 4(BTN) $13.60 - VP:18 PFR:14 AF:1.0 W:67|100 STL:0|100 3B:0| CB:|0 N:10.71 Hands:22

Pre Flop: Me(MP) with [As,Ah]
Me(MP) raises 0.35,
Player 2(CO) folds,
Player 3(UTG) folds,
Player 4(BTN) calls 0.35,
Player 5(SB) folds,
Player 6(BB) folds

Flop: (6s,Kh,5h)(2 players)
Pot - 1
Me(EP) bets 0.70,
Player 4(BTN) raises 1.65,
Me(EP) calls 0.95

Turn: Jd (2 players)
Pot - 4.30
Me(EP) checks,
Player 4(BTN) bets 2.55,
Me(EP) calls 2.55

River: 8s (2 players)
Pot - 9.40
Me(EP) checks,
Player 4(BTN) bets 9.05,
Me(EP)?

Last Post 9 years ago by

CrazyCookie

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https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=nl10-aa-65&nav=57322024d3904384208b4580

Been analyzing this myself! A key factor seems to be that we hold the Ah blocker. So this cuts down on nut draws he could be raising. So it doesn't bode well for us, making his raise more value-heavy. But still since we hold that BDNFD we can surely call the small raise and see if we improve on the turn (with an A or flushing card, also he might check back turn if he was at all bluffing, though he hasn't shown to be especially bluffy so far, but not many hands.

Turn we could even make a fold right there? Problem is we know we'll be playing for stacks and I'm not sure I want to be, but as played surely he can't be bluffing river on this runout and also the fact that the pot is so big, he lacks FE.

River is definitely a fold vs this guy. The turn is the hard decision.

Versus this guy I think I'm happy to give it up without any info on his post flop raising tendencies. A tight or passive guy will often check behind with his missed draws on the turn for a free card, making this a bit of an easier decision.

Only 22 hands so ignoring the stats.

I don't hate x/jamming turn here. Villain can have multiple combo draws or just normally draws he decided to raise flop with. He only has 14combos that beat us and I reckon we get 50% folds to a shove and have at times a lot of equity v FD.

How long did he take for each bet? Was flop raise normal turn bet slow? If so I shove 100% here if normal normal I like it less.

Ap I don't love the river spot we are in, probably a fold but couldn't say you made an awful mistake you if you called!

In this exact hand he probs has a set but can't let us become biasdd because of that

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