colly191091

Thoughts on this one?

Villain playing 16/13 over 200 hands.

Standard value on flop. I can't see many 6's & 4's in this guys range due to his tight stats. Especially vs. UTG open. When he calls, I suspect he has an overpair like 77/99-JJ, high card floats like AK - AJ, possibly some Ax with a BDFD etc. Not many draws unless he's calling with 78s but we block that.

4 turn is pretty much a blank. I decide to check to keep his bluffs in, I think I'm only really afraid of an A on the river. If we bet, we only get value from 77. This the right play?

On the river, J arrives... Pretty safe card unless he has JJ, AJ or some other float with a J in it. Not many hands I don't think. He fires the river pretty big... Can we call? Our check on the turn can induce a lot of bluffs but the main question is does he have more bluffs or value when he takes this line? I think against a looser player, I would call.

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888
6 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.106
UTGHero $10
UTG+1 talya90 $4
CO Antocha.mikh $5.57
D BolasieFlick $10.42
SB Duglas75 $10
BB HiroZerO $10.60

Preflop
6$0.15Hero is UTG88
Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BolasieFlick calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop
2$0.75664
Hero bets$0.40, BolasieFlick calls $0.40

Turn
2$1.554
Hero checks, BolasieFlick bets $1.16, Hero calls$1.16

River
2$3.87J
Hero checks, BolasieFlick bets $2.67, Hero ???

Last Post 7 years ago by

fergrberger

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I like your line and I'd go ahead and c-c the river. Hard for them to have much here that we lose to other than over pairs playing 16/14. I am a little worried that they are 2 barrelling us after checking given their nitty stats but it also means they may not be value betting 99-TT thinly on the river too.

I like underbetting the turn for protection. Even villains as tight as this one will float you with Ax on this flop and possibly call once more.

On the river they're going to assume some of the time that their Ax is good once we check and won't bluff.

As played check calling turn looks fine though, but the river looks like a fold to me. I don't expect a 16/13 to be betting an overpair for value on this run out.

This is super close given tight villain. I probably couldn't fold this on the turn, but by the river, I'm really not happy with the hand especially given villain's sizing.

Tricky enough hand.

Pre: Completely standard obviously.

Flop: I like betting out here and I like your sizing as well.

Turn: Betting again isn't absurd here but I think I prefer going for the check call line. If we are in trouble here we are never folding out a better hand and if we are ahead villain only has 6 outs to improve so check calling seems correct to me.

River: This is a pretty upsetting spot to be in here versus a nitty player. It's a really nice spot for villain to be barelling IMO as your hand is somewhat face-up with the line you've taken. I know if I were in villains shoes I'd be piling on the pressure vs this line which makes me want to call, I just don't know if the standard nitty player is going to be thinking this way. I probably click the call button but I'm not thrilled about it.

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