10NL K9

Posted 7 years ago

This is a double barrel spot that I'm always a little uncertain about, maybe you kind fellows could help!

Villain is weak and playing 36/22 over 1k hands with 48% fold to flop cbet + 52% fold to turn cbet. WSD% 45.

My Thought Process

BvB so ranges are wide.

Flop: We flop 2nd pair. Not bad. Lots of draws out there. Our SDV is pretty vulnerable so a bet for protection / value should be the best play.

When he calls, I figured his range would roughly be any pair with the board, 77 / 88 / TT, 78, TJ, KT, KJ & club flush draws. There's also random floats too seeing as we're BvB and he has position. If villain had any big hands on this flop, I'd expect him to raise so we're looking okay going to the turn.

Turn: This is where I get a little confused...

We improve to a gutshot along with our 3rd pair but can we fire? We're OOP and bloating the pot if so. If called, we have a lot of awkward rivers to face.

In terms of villains range, the J brings a lot of pair + draw combos. If an A or K came, I would fire. With the J, hands like JT, 9T, KT, KJ etc. improve to pair + draw. I can't see much fold equity. All we're getting to fold most of the time is 6x, 77 and possibly 88. I'd expect all flush draws to call again.

If we check to try and get to showdown OOP, we open ourselves up to getting blown off our hand by bluffs. What's the best play on the turn? =/

In position, I think this hand would have been a lot easier to play. I'd probably check back the turn. Thoughts?

Cheers!

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888
5 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.105
UTG pchel110284 $10.39
CO Parsam5 $11.67
D macakgregor $10.37
SBHero $17.99
BB Tengu23 $11.90
Preflop
5$0.15Hero is SBK9
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, Tengu23 calls $0.20
Flop
2$0.606Q9
Hero bets$0.30, Tengu23 calls $0.30
Turn
2$1.20J
Hero checks, Tengu23 bets $0.60, Hero calls$0.60
River
2$2.402
Hero checks, Tengu23 bets $1.20, Hero folds
Final Pot$3.60

Tengu23 wins $3.48 (net +$1.08)
Hero lost$1.20

fergrberger

Last Post 7 years ago by

fergrberger

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Posted 7 years ago
Bumpppppppppp
Posted 7 years ago
I'd go and check the flop myself, can't really call a raise and don't want to bloat a pot with 2nd pair OOP on a drawy board. I don't think we fold all that many hands other than under pairs. If you do want to protect you have to bet bigger, half size bet is giving them odds to call with anything they connected with. Turn I'd be folding to a real size but am calling the half pot hoping it will go check check river and we take it down.

As played folding once they fire out again.
Posted 7 years ago
With the number of draws and gutshots out there I would make the c bet. We also have a backdoor flush draw which gives us tons more turn barrel cards. If I had TT no club then I would check behind, but here it looks to me like there's enough reasons to bet.

The J turn is a bit grim. Check calling feels a bit dirty, but betting isn't going to yield much value. With the fact that we can still have the best hand here I would go ahead and fire again. Villain can legitimately call you twice with some weak showdown hands and will be unlikely to bluff the river.
Posted 7 years ago
Thanks for responses!

@Turlock if we bet the turn and he calls, what's our river play?
Posted 7 years ago
colly191091: Thanks for responses!

@Turlock if we bet the turn and he calls, what's our river play?


At 10NL I still think it's best to fold to any kind of normal sized bet. It's made a little easier here by JT now having showdown value therefore unlikely to bluff. Of course he does have 87 and flush draws in his range which miss, but to counter that he also has plenty of showdown hands which generally won't bluff.
Posted 7 years ago
Pre: Standard.

Flop: I could go either way here with either betting ourselves or check calling. Both seem pretty reasonable to me, I think my preference is to check call to induce bluffs since most hands villain is calling a bet with will likely bet themselves anyway so I don't see much of a downside to check calling on this kind of board where we aren't looking to build a massive pot.

Turn: The J is a pretty ugly card. It connects with all of villains potential gutshots/open enders that they may have floated us with and I think my preference here is just to check fold. We have 3rd pair on an ugly board, if we improve to 2 pair then there is 4 to a straight on board and if we hit our gutshot it will be tough to get paid for the same reason.

River: As played I think we should definitely be folding here. We are occasionally getting bluffed off the best hand but not overly often I feel.