colly191091

Howdy lads!

Interesting spot here! Villain is pretty fishy

Preflop - Interesting that villain in the SB flatted and then called 4bet into 2 players!!! Seeing as he's not the best, I put him on the following range: 99 - QQ, AKs, AK, AQs, AJs & KQs (some players opt to cold call 3bet with QQ/AK at these limits)

Flop - BALLS. He just donk ships it? haha I worked out my equity against his range on this board and we have 57.18%... if my calculations are correct, we need 50.7% to call.... So it should be profitable to do so

The question is, how often does he do this with nothing? I pretty much always expect to Ax or 99 here... =/ Can we call this? The fact that he donk shoved makes it so much harder

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888
6 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.106
UTG cptainjack $10
UTG+1Hero $10.43
CO Aereesteo $15.96
D lukiz84x $15.50
SB mhamed24 $7.60
BB kaskaderl $12.92

Preflop
6$0.15Hero is UTG+1KK
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, Aereesteo raises to $0.90, 1 fold, mhamed24 calls $0.85, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.35, Aereesteo folds, mhamed24 calls $2.45

Flop
2$7.70A39
mhamed24 goes all-in $4.25, Hero folds

Final Pot$11.95

mhamed24 wins $11.50 (net +$3.90)
Hero lost$3.35
Aereesteo lost $0.90

Last Post 7 years ago by

FireLeper

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https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=10nl-kk-7&nav=577a684dd390435b7e8b45e9

I don't think I'm folding here for what's left in the pot. Yes they have lots of Ax in their range but they have just as many and pocket pairs, 9x and random air that they are bluff shoving with. Makes little sense for them to shove this flop with any Ax too.

Give their stack size and PF action I think the range of ax/99 is way too tight, I'm calling here and expecting to be good fairly often.

We need less than 30% which we easily have v FD, SD, random spews and ax. Call and don't feel too bad if you lose 65%-70% of the time.

Thanks for responsessss!

Seems like a fold to me tbh. We have left ourselves a stack-size where we can get away from the hand (don't want to make it larger PF for sure), and the flop comes bad, A-high. I think he usually has an Ax most of the time, so I doubt equity is as good as estimated. If we have over 50% it's obviously and easy call. Something is going wrong with your pot-odds calculations here also. We never need more than 50% equity to make any call where we are closing the action.

Apologies! Just re-calculated (I'm a maths n00b) - 35% required equity apparently

So given this donk shove, still a fold Adam? Not quite sure what's best as there's a few mixed responses!

Also, If positions were reversed on flop - I check, and he shoves, is it a call?

Sorry for being a pain but trying to figure this one out haha Wasn't a nice spot

Where are you being 35% from? How are you sitting out the pot odds?

I'll start again haha

Against his assigned range on the flop, we have around 47% equity, would that be correct?

Attached Image

So after he shoves, there are 70bb's in the pot, and 42bb's to call:

42 (amount to call) + 70 (current pot) = 112 (total pot)

42 / 112 = 37.5%

So we we require 37% equity for a profitable call? We have a 47% chance we're ahead (assuming our range assignment is a good one)? =/

(I'm a maths n00b - Got this calculation info from another forum post a while back so not sure if completely accurate)

As I 4bet PF into 2 players and he called OOP, I can't imagine his range is much wider but I could be wrong

*BLEH! I said 70 for current pot in above post (which I can't edit)! It's actually 77bb's

42 (amount to call) + 77 (current pot) = 119 (total pot)

42 / 119 = 35%

Wrong again

You need to call 4,25 for a total pot of 16,2 (7,7+4,25*2), so you need 26% equity

Ahaaaa! I was adding up the pot wrong ffs. We live and we learn. I iz a N00bz0rz

So this should be a call all the time?

Interesting

@w34z3l said fold... Can anyone expand?

Yeah, I think it is a call. Your range is slightly off I think, but I think we can assume villain has draws and worse than Ax enough here to call needing 26% and no facing another Street. I will be closing but given we expect some random spews from the fish it is OK.

Assuming w34z3l thinks we see Ax too often for it to be a call which is possible, I just think we also see some completely random spews more often than we expect also.

I agree that we will see Ax here at 10NL just too often to call. Villains are much more likely to play any showdown value passively rather than turning T9s/44 into a bluff.

If villain is bad as you suggest then the fact he donks doesn't reduce the chance of him having Ax at all, many bad players will just assume this is what they're supposed to do with top pair when it's their turn, regardless of kicker or who has the lead.

CrazyCookie: Yeah, I think it is a call. Your range is slightly off I think, but I think we can assume villain has draws and worse than Ax enough here to call needing 26% and no facing another Street. I will be closing but given we expect some random spews from the fish it is OK.

Assuming w34z3l thinks we see Ax too often for it to be a call which is possible, I just think we also see some completely random spews more often than we expect also.

How can villain have draws here? He can have no Ax or Kx FDs, which means he'll have to have called a 4bet pre with a Qx one somehow. Seems unlikely to me.

I'm folding this all day. Don't ever overestimate the likelihood of random spew, which is pretty must best case scenario. It will happen, but not at nearly the frequency we'd like to think. That leaves under-pairs, which just don't play like this, and Ax, which he has the majority of the time given the preflop action. Feel sad, and fold.

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