10NLz AJo

Posted 7 years ago

Readless in this hand, just global population tendencies in the pool. Thoughts on every street here?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem PokerStars
6 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.106
UTG Player4 $13.53
UTG+1 Player5 $10
CO Player6 $11.60
D Player1 $18.55
SB Player2 $17.15
BBHero $18.50
Preflop
6$0.15Hero is BBJA
3 folds, Player1 raises to $0.25, 1 fold, Hero calls$0.15
Flop
2$0.55499
Hero checks, Player1 bets $0.26, Hero calls$0.26
Turn
2$1.073
Hero checks, Player1 bets $0.60, Hero calls$0.60
River
2$2.27Q
Hero checks, Player1 bets $1.20
Final Pot$3.47

Turlock

Last Post 7 years ago by

Turlock

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Posted 7 years ago*
Pre: standard, we can definitely 3bet for value against fish and people who aren't folding to many 3bets but readless totally fine.

Flop: Hmm. Check-calling once is fine, but I'm not in love with it. The problem is realizing our equity is hard because it's not super easy to get to showdown, and we don't have anything we can backdoor to make it easier. I'd much prefer to be check-calling 66 or 77 here so we can be ahead much more often vs. his stronger airy/weak hands like A and Khi. We're essentially hoping he'll just give up on future streets. It's not terrible obviously since our hand is pretty strong vs his range on this board, plus his sizing suggests weakness, but I think that's discounted a bit by his positional advantage.

Turn: Think I'm just giving up and folding here tbh. Don't think he's barreling this card without a made hand, weak pp or something like A4 most likely, and we're really just drawing to 6 outs.

River: This is very strange. Why would he be betting his weak made hands on this river? I would expect 66 or 77 just to take the SDV. It looks like he's either got a) 9x, b) soooometimes a Qx double barrel that got there, c) maybe the best of his pps, or d) bluffs. That's a weird range. That said, I'd still probably fold on the basis that the population don't triple barrel often enough for this to be profitable. Tough spot though, wouldn't blame you for calling at all.
Posted 7 years ago
Pre flop is fine, would 3bet if we were 100bb, don't like doing it 180bb deep as I expect they are calling way to often.

Flop I would just c-f, we have no backdoors and our equity sucks, not any great turn cards asides from A or J. Would fold flop and defo folding the turn once we call the flop.
Posted 7 years ago
Folding flop here is completely out of the question IMO, our hand is going to be ahead far more often than not on this kind of board vs a BTN opening range.

Turn is a bit closer when he fires a second street here, I'm not as happy with my hand now but I do feel we are ahead enough here to warrant calling still.

River - My line of thinking was on par with Fireleper that I don't think many people are going to be going for three streets of value here with a bulk of the potential hands that we have been so I figured I was up against his strong PP's, 9x or bluffs so I ended up calling and heshowed down 8To for a 0 equity bluff.
Posted 7 years ago
I think the problem here is the fact that villain is an unknown and population reads tell us that at 10nl, generally villains don't bluff multiple streets. For that reason, I think against this unknown, flop is standard but turn is probably closer to a fold. River def a fold.

If this was a reg who you knew had a bluffing range then I'd happily float here and even consider X/R river against the more aggressive villains.
Posted 7 years ago
I'm not sure I agree, triple barrel bluffs when we show so much weakness are not entirely uncommon. And the vast majority of his value range does not make sens to be going for three streets of value on this kind of runout so it's a close spot I feel.
Posted 7 years ago
It's true that we're ahead on the flop vs. his BTN opening range, but that's kind of irrelevant, because realizing our equity OOP with no way of improving it other than our 6 outs is really difficult. Getting to the river for cheap isn't happening, so I think we have to seriously reduce our equity and fold the flop or turn.
Posted 7 years ago
I would have given up on the turn at 10NL.

You say no reads and relying on population tendencies; this makes me lean towards believing the second barrel. I wouldn't expect an average 10NL player to blindly barrel air on this texture without showdown value or a turned flush draw at least, which will only be a tiny part of his range.

Against a confirmed competent player it's obviously different, but with no other information I'm happy to play it safe.