Joshk81

Hello.

I have opened Btn with QQJ6dhhd in 6 max PLO. SB has 3b me with 100 bb stack. Over 100 hands, he is a VPIP 25% PFR 14% St 31% and 3B 6.5% AF is 1.4.

His range here is (I think) largely decent aces and some suited - double suited broadway heavy rundowns.

I call with position on the button. Effective SPR postflop is 4.

He leads for pot effectively leaving a pot sized bet behind on 899hhx. (starting with SPR 4 the pot lead now allows for a pot sized reraise or a pot sized bet on the turn by him if I call)

I think we are a reasonable dog to his range that we can fold here?

Against a raw 6% range we have 39% equity. There are a small number of hands he is bet folding on this flop but his continuing range will likely be hands that are rundowns with a 9 which block our flush and straight draw, bigger pairs with a flush draw, and even some AJTK type hands with the flush draw.

Against his wraps + a 9 where he does not have hearts we have 36.5% versus 9sTsJcKc type hands. (note backdoor clubs here - we have hearts and diamonds I feel safe assuming often he has clubs here)

With broad way runs that flop wrap nut flush draw we have 47% versus ThJcKcAh.

Then big pairs with the flushdraw we have 24% vs 5hKdAhAc.

We need 40% here to break even.

I would think likely we are about the 33-35% against his range so this feels like it should be a fold when he pots here? I take his pot lead to be mostly genuine - he is looking to get stacks in. Is calling an option thinking maybe some turns he checks and gives up / checks and lets us check behind? I think this is not really sound though I think if we are continuing here we are repotting.

What are your thoughts on this?

As always, thanks for any input.

Josh.

Last Post 8 years ago by

Joshk81

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Hi Josh, there are a few points I'd like to make.

1. His total 3b range is 6.5%, but the highest 3b% is going to be SB vs BTN. I'd say the real # here is 10-15%.

2. Even using a 6% range, we have 48% on the flop, I'm not sure how you got the 39%.

3. Hand reading - would he really cbet pot on this board with 9x, or a strong hand/draw like AA with hearts? I really don't think so. This guy looks pretty nitty, passive, and probably not much of a thinking player - this really looks like naked AA or KK deciding to just pot/get it in. Worst case scenario I gave him all combos of AA and KK which will have some hearts and we have 42% against that range, making this a clear get in. Hope that helps.

Cliff notes - calling this hand PF and not getting it in on a flop like this is a crime (and calling the 3b is absolutely standard, possibly 4betting against some wide 3bet ranges). You can't really hope to flop much better than you did.

25/14/7 looks like a normal micro-reg, who is a bit tight. Common way for these kind of players to play is to have static preflop ranges. Which means that he might open around 15%-20% from all positions. His 3bet range might be the same from all positions and situations. But then on the other hand he might have difference in those, as 100h sample size is prone to variance.

Some players actually bet full pot there with Aces, and fold to a raise. The thinking process is to bet big so opponent can't semibluff them when the board is scary. It isn't a good approach but that is what some regulars are doing. So unless you have information, there is some folding equity.

If you use PPT and check your equity vs top 6%, it goes wrong. That range has all the aces and kings, and he is not 3betting there with most of the kings and might not 3bet crappy Aces. Hand like JT98ds is in top10% which doesn't fell to PPT top6% range, but would be a 3bet hand there.

I used PokerJuice, as it has more realistic 3bet ranges in-built. Let's look at some situations:

Opponent 3bets with 12% oop 3bet range. On the flop he cbets with all flush draws, any AA+ and QJTx. When hero shoves, he folds QJT and AA without flush draw or OESD. Opponent folds 30% of his flop range, and the EV of shove is +2,2bb.

If we change the preflop range to 6% oop 3bet, with same postflop estimations, the EV of a shove is +1,5bb (although opponent folds 40% of flop range)

Now let's assume that opponent (12% oop 3bet) doesn't cbet with 9+ for a pot. But he cbets his whole range, and calls shove with flush draw, aces and OESD+. EV of a shove is +27bb.

Same thing against 6% oop 3bet, EV of a shove is +14,5bb.

If opponent has overpair+fd, you are in really bad shape. Against AAxx on the flop, your shove EV is -10bb.

Unless you have a reason to narrow down his range to really strong hands (overpairs with a fd and 9+) you should get it in. And make a note that he cbets pot, and find out his range.

I am happy with the replies... I repotted and got it in vs KT95ds which surprised me he had this here and chose to play it this way. I played devil's advocated (I think I am using the term right?

) and suggested the opposite of what I did to avoid confirmation bias...

The 39% vs the 6% range I think I got from pro poker tools running QQJ6ds vs 6% it may be the case that I forgot to input the flop.

Thank you both unfortunately I am sure I will be posting more hands here in an effort to fill some leaks. If only it were as simple as that dear Henry song and all I needed was some straw to fix the holes

What are your thoughts here? I feel spots like this are common and how we play trips here out of position is crucial as it is a spot where regularly stacks go in. If you both can take a moment please have a look here.

I very much appreciate the opportunities forums like these provide.

Thanks.

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