it's BB vs BTN

Even if you care about the GTO perspective, some players would suggest not having a range for raising the flop here and while I wouldn't go that far and I can't really hate your raise given how much equity you have, equally you also have a ton of implied odds, some showdown value and you're playing against a loose perceived range of a button opener so overall I think calling the flop will lead you to more situations. For example, if you decide to raise the flop and villain goes over the top you most likely have enough equity to go broke but you can't be thrilled about it. Also, ace is a card most players will barrel with a high frequency and seeing as it's one of your outs that's another reason to just flat the flop.

As played I like the follow up on the turn, but when it comes to the river I'm kinda lost, to be honest, but I can't see many players turning a Q into a bluff with this sizing and therefore I'd be more inclined to fold. That being said this guy looks kinda aggro with above average WWSF, high AF etc. Those stats aren't super reliable after 900 hands, but I can see arguments for calling.

So to reiterate, I like call on the flop over the raise, and I think I'd probably fold the river given the sizing, but that might be a faulty reasoning and it's possible sizing is far less important than the stats here.

If he's bluffing, it has to be with a hand that had a reason to call the flop c/r and a decent sized turn bet. We have NFD so he can't have that. 76, JT that picked up OESD on the turn. Both these hands he would have to have been planning to bet on a straight and bluff all flushes, which is a bit odd since our c/r flop fire turn is often a FD ourselves. So I have to discount these hands. Many straight draws will and should fold the turn. Otherwise, does QJ/QT really call the turn? then decide to bluff river? Again, maybe sometimes but not so much. Kxdd will often be happy with SDV. Plus if we have a set, we'll play it this way a lot, since many more missed FD are now in his range and we're looking to pick off a river bluff. All that is a long winded way of saying, I don't see a whole lot of bluffs in his range.

I am having a really hard time with this hand. LOL. I do agree that with the flop raise and turn barrel, there probably aren't a ton of bluffs in his range, but, for me, I am also having a hard time with the value side of things. So hopefully someone can help with this.

If this guy has JT, wouldn't he just be ripping this river. If my math is right he has ~pot size bet left behind. If we are on the FD that we look like, we aren't calling any bet, unless its pair + FD like we have, so with the nuts he would want to be targeting 2 pairs and sets and trying to get max value.

So he is basically repping a set or 2 pair. The challenge I have is, with some of the stronger 2 pair, like AQ and sets, wouldn't he be raising the turn and getting it in. I think I would. Hero has so many draws he could play like this that you would want to protect against. FD, JT. J9, T9, 97, 76, 64 to name a few.

So what is he betting this size on the river for value. Some kind of middling 2 pair? I don't know. QJ and QT might make nice bluffs with the blocker to the nuts, but like Matt said, not sure how many players would turn those into a bluff for this size. Pretty sure they would just shove.

The size is just weird and he can't be bet folding anything. So Idk seems like a fold to me.

@CycleVancouver said exactly what i thought too. Really hard to find some reasonable bluffs here for him. We are not very high up in our range so we dont "need" to call either. Happily c/f the river.

Also fine with how you played the hand on all previous streets.

Thanks for posts, i c-f on R .