CrazyCookie

Annon table so no stats on player.

Thought process is this:

Preflop: standard
Flop: clearly +EV cbet, get enough folds here to cbet pretty much ATC and with an overcard/bdfd and even bdsd it is a clear bet.
Turn: Again clear cbet, we now have a fd also and we still get folds from pp maybe A5s also.
River: This is actually quite a nice card for us as we can have QT and vilain can't. We can also have all sets and I expect villain to x/r more often than not when he has one. So I'm putting him on Kx and really don't know if I should try to get a fold. I think that if I do I should bet pretty huge here maybe around 22 into 15, but seeing he can have KJ I'm not sure.

It would be easy to sell me on this size and do it with KJ, sets and QT, we have enough combos of those to do it with quite a lot of bluffs. That being said, should I really try to get him to fold Kx.... Is my flop and turn cbet profitable enough to not bet here? I kind of hate that, double barrel give up, but it may be the best line to take here.

Also I think I should bet bigger OTT to do this, maybe like 5.25, so taht I can rep a bigger handa bit easier.

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem PartyPoker
6 Players

Blinds$0.25/$0.506
UTGHero $50
UTG+1 Player4 $118.12
CO Player5 $42.40
D Player6 $81.07
SB Player1 $58.88
BB Player2 $82.75

Preflop
6$0.75Hero is UTG8A
Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Player2 calls $1

Flop
2$3.253K5
Player2 checks, Hero bets$2, Player2 calls $2

Turn
2$7.259
Player2 checks, Hero bets$4.25, Player2 calls $4.25

River
2$15.75J
Player2 checks

Final Pot$15.75

Last Post 7 years ago by

shakpablo

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https://www.pokervip.com/thread/view?forum=poker-strategy&slug=50nl-annon-ah8h-bluf-river-sizing&nav=5766e445d3904355248b45fe

I don't think this is a good spot for an overbet.because you don't have so often QT since you're UTG.

If you want to look like you have a strong hand I would bet 10.5-11.5 and probably you will get a fold from KQ.

But this river card is pretty bad. KJ is in villain's range.

While I like your reasoning and I'd definitely try to push my range advantage by betting this river I don't think overbetting is the way to go. Not without some additional info. By default I'd go for something like 11-12$ and call it a day (though I would definitely adjust my sizing in the future based on the showdown).

Is this really a standard spot for a third barrel?

With there being a limited number of nutted hands that we cover more in our range than villain I wouldn't go for the overbet if deciding to fire again. Certainly not without any info on villain. I like Matt's idea of around $11 to try and fold out KT KQ and second pair type hands.

With no reads, I can't see myself firing the third barrel. I don't think he c/r sets all the time OTT, it's not that wet. And if he liked his Kx or TT on flop and turn we'd need him to fold 50% if we fire a PSB, idk if we get those results. We need even more folds if we overbet.

I agree with you that turn mayhaps could've been bigger, put the pressure on mid PP. But most people don't call Kx to fold TP to just two barrels (if ever). And by the river some of those hands improved.

I'm not sure about NL50 but I'm pretty sure that with a decent number of players, AK can also be in their range from the BB vs UTG. On a board like this they won't want to raise you on the flop either, as they'll not be achieving much apart from folding out your worse hands.

Once we get a call on the turn also I'm not sure whether I'd continue with a 3rd barrel.

I think we're really aiming this at KQ or TT only.

JJ, 99 got there and may trap. KJ also happier and AK as I said is going to be tough to fold out.

I'm just looking at the amount of hands that continue to the river and how tough this is going to be on the texture to fold them out and thus I believe it's going to be too tough and give up.

Grocker6: I'm not sure about NL50 but I'm pretty sure that with a decent number of players, AK can also be in their range from the BB vs UTG.

Very true.

In general, I don't think bluffing rivers don't knowing if the player will fold TP it's a +EV situation.

Regards

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