5NL - TT (facing turn bet vs. UTG)

Posted 7 years ago

Definitely need some help with this one. Not sure whether my calculations are accurate, so please correct me if I'm wrong...

UTG opens, SB calls, we call in the BB w/TT. Flop is 843

Flop gets checked around.

If we assign UTG this range pre:

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*I don't think he'd check back value hands on this flop. I don't see any 2P hands here on the flop. Sets, overpairs, and 8x likely would've bet flop to get value because a 3rd club on the turn might kill action. FD's, especially w/Ax, "likely" would've bet here. However, FD's can also go into his check back range.

*Hands that check back: Overcards, smaller pairs 55, 66, 77. Perhaps FD's could go here if he plays them passively.

Turn brings A. SB checks, we check, and UTG bets .25c.

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And we assign him this range on the turn after he bets ("likely" for value) and after making the above inferences:

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So it's .25c/.93c = ~27% equity

Hero should call in this spot because we have enough equity here? If we call, we're hoping to find a free SD?
fawltyfelix

Last Post 7 years ago by

fawltyfelix

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Posted 7 years ago
Yeah I think you have to call the turn to this size and having the Tc, he could just be stabbing the turn given we have checked to him twice. Basically if you call turn and it goes x/x you are going to win some percentage of the time. If he bets the river, you probably have a fold, because Ax is a good part of his xback range on the flop MW. I personally open all Axs from UTG, so if he does he could have a fair amount of Ax. I don't think he has a flush, with the Ac out there and fact he didn't bet flop, but I guess he could have one. If 4 flush comes it could get interesting if he bets, but if it goes x/x you will probably win.