So I can see where some of your logic is coming from and tbh I would probably end up doing the same thing in game, but I think it is wrong and I think you can actually fold this on the river, unless you have reads that this guy is bluff happy or spazzy or overvalues hands. If you don't have those reads then by default, as sick as it sounds you can probably fold. Even though you have 2pair your AQ is still essentially a bluff catcher, because the value hands he is repping have you beat.

So first thing that you missed in your analysis, is that this pot is 4way. At 4nl people are going to play pretty straight forward in a multiway pot like this. So I don't think he is ever raising KQ here and probably not even AQ. The guy who raised you is on the BU so I highly doubt they ever have Q2 or Q4, if he was BB I could see it. I do agree that squeezing QQ is likely, but you can't discount all QQ. It was UT open and MP call, so some guys at 4nl are going to play super passive and super scared here and can certainly have some QQ here. So I think that narrows the raising range down to sets and FDs, maybe the occasional gutshot with something like A5s. However, not even sure most 4nl players are gonna raise those. I think they will just take there typical passive line and call and try to hit.

Next, the turn is an A, which is typically a scary card and he continues to bet. I kind of feel like on that card if he had a draw he would probably just XB and try and realize his equity.

Lastly the river is a 3rd high card. 3 high card boards are typically way underbluffed. You typically have to turn a pair into a bluff. So like he would have had to bluff raise something like KJ, then turns the nut gutshot, pairs his K on the river and just decides to bluff it off. Most 4nl players are just gonna check the K back, some how thinking they have SDV.

I think your best case scenario here is that he had a FD and is barreling it off. I don't think he ever has KQ here or AQ, so i think it boils down to whether or not you think he has enough bluffs on the river to make your call profitable and I just don't think that 4nl players are 3 barrel bluffing enough, especially on this run out. I think this is always value heavy. As narrow of a range as it sounds I think this is just: #3 - 22, #3 - 44 and maybe #1-2 of QQ. I guess if you can find 3 to 4 bluffs that you for sure think he has then you can call. I don't see it though, not from most players at 4nl.

Thanks for your thoughts @fawltyfelix .

I can remember this hand so vividly. After the reraise I actually put him on a set. but with TPTK i could not let it go on the flop. seeing the A I sighed... said to myself "thats going to be expensive" and called down.

I guess this hand is a good example for how differently Hero should act in accordance to the playstyle of Villain. I think that my reasoning in the first post is still valid and +EV against a (very) agressiv player.

Against a passive player this should be a fold on the river as you stated!