Without doing exact math I think we're betting a little over pot here effective? Roughly risking $3 to pick up $2.64? If we're making this play based on our stats then we have a losing bet as we get called 50% of the time.

Now looking at villains global fold to river bet here isn't necessarily the correct way of looking at it given that this will look at all scenarios. We're obviously repping very strong here as played on this board so we need to decide whether villain is willing to recognise that and fold a Qx type hand. A good exercise for these kinds of spots for a player to look to improve - Using Flopzilla or something similar plot out a range for what hands you expect villain to get here on the river with, and which of these hands you are looking to get to fold? I'd be interested in seeing what you come up with here.

He opens about 36% of hands so my K6s is a flat. It is on the lower side of my range.

His range should look like this



as villain cbets nearly 90% of hands I think this might be a nice check raise spot. I have the 2nd NFD and even a back door straight. so lots of fun hands on the turn for me. after my c/r his range should look like this




villain keeps going with his top pair+ hands as well as OESD and FD as my raise was rather small (he only needs 30% EQ on this spot) --> should I make this bigger in general?

the 10s was not my favourite card on the flop, I decided do double barrel because now he should let go of all his draws --> should i make this bigger? his draws get 3




on the river we see a blank. so my shove should fold out all his Top pair hands whichare slightly more than 50% of his hands. so my play was marginally profitable at best.

[img=https://d1nz104zbf64va.cloudfront.net/pv/f/o/c867c30c37321f70e26a0aacb6611890.png[/img]

is this correct?
would a spade on the turn be a better bluff card for me as he should also fold out his overpairs and not really calling down with any spades (except AQs and KQs)

In general I don't go out of my way to make villains fold top pair hands without a REALLY good reason to do it. We don't have one here given that our likeliest bluffs is the flush draw that has bricked. I think this is a risky line that is at best marginally profitable, and has the potential to be an absolute spew depending on our villain.

I think the flop check raise is fine, I follow through on the turn but go a bit smaller with the intention of getting some folds, and also getting to set our own cheaper price to draw to the flush as villain is unlikely to raise us ever here. River I think I give up then.

I agree with Ferg, I like the check raise, but once he calls I'm erring more towards shutting down once we brick out

Generally when I do this type of move and get called I shut up shop, but that often depends, if I improve on the turn I may contimue. It's not often people will fold now because they obviously like their hand and it just gets expensive and we think we have to follow it up by 3 barelling and that isn't true at these stakes.
Also take into consideration that even regs at these limits won very often think as analytically as you and just call down because 'Lolz, I haz top pair!'
.
Don't fear playing check/raise and then shutting down sometimes is too 'weak', it's ok.