NL10 AA (again)

Posted 8 years ago

Ok this spot has been happening far too much lately, also this is vs the relative unknown of the table.
When raised into in a multiway pot, should this just be an easy let go? Just seems like they always end up with the obvious ...

mto502(SB) $9.10 - VP:50 PFR:0 AF:1.0 W:67|50 STL:|0 3B:0|100 CB:|33 N:8.90 Hands:8
FrenchChick97(BB) $15.41 - VP:28 PFR:12 AF:3.0 W:8|0 STL:100|67 3B:4|0 CB:40|33 N:4.11 Hands:43
Me(UTG) $10.50
billionersg(MP) $12.11 - VP:36 PFR:22 AF:1.8 W:23|75 STL:54|83 3B:0|33 CB:72|20 N:-13.88 Hands:109
noor39(CO) $12.24 - VP:94 PFR:37 AF:2.0 W:16|29 STL:45|0 3B:6|20 CB:64|41 N:-1.66 Hands:52
PsychoPlays(BTN) $10 - VP:28 PFR:15 AF:8.0 W:13|50 STL:0|54 3B:5| CB:83|75 N:-3.49 Hands:54


Pre Flop: Me(UTG) with [A,A]
Me(UTG) raises 0.30,
billionersg(MP) folds,
noor39(CO) calls 0.30,
PsychoPlays(BTN) folds,
mto502(SB) calls 0.25,
FrenchChick97(BB) folds


Flop: (5,2,8)(3 players)
Pot - 1
mto502(SB) checks,
Me(MP) bets 0.60,
noor39(LP) calls 0.60,
mto502(SB) raises 3.40,
Me(MP) ?
pinch_2712

Last Post 7 years ago by

pinch_2712

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Posted 8 years ago
I think its a fold. A bloody irritating one but a fold nonetheless. This guy looks like a fish, acts like a fish and is raising huge on a low flop MW. If its not a set then I'd fall off my chair. Vs some guys I suppose it could be a FD or combo draw and so you could be giving up some equity but vs his total range I doubt it is any good when you factor in rake and the variance of the spot. I think its better just to get out now, cheaply than call and see 55 and be annoyed.
Posted 8 years ago
Big raises like this is someone wanting to get a lot in on the flop ... he has some 22 55 88 but also a lot of hearts. It is less common these days for people to raise flops with flush draws but it does still happen often enough. He has $8.20 back effectively on the flop, so we would be putting in $8.20 on the flop into a pot of $19.20 so we need ~ 43%.

Against sets we have ~ 14%. Vs flush draws like KQhh J9hh we have ~ 67%. He can have some combo draws like 67hh or 79hh for AA having 48.4 and 57.1% respectively.

If we ignore the combo draws and just look at FD / sets, we can work out he needs to have FDs x% of the time. If he has sets half the time and flush draws like KQhh half the time our combined equity it 14 * 0.5 + 67 * 0.5 = 40.5%.

Reasons he would be wanting to get money in on the flop are player dependent.... He may be more likely to have a set and want to get the money in to charge draws and avoid action killings turns, or he may be more likely to want to get a lot in on the flop with flush draws so he can just get it in see two cards and possibly take it down without needing to go to showdown.

My general line is to look at AF and if it is high, be more inclined to get it in, if it is low, I would be more inclined to more heavily assign combinations of sets and take that into consideration when I am unsure what to do.

8 hands means nothing. If you have just sat down, open the replayer look for one or two hands he has gone to showdown with, how he played them, and decide from that.

As a default in the spot, I am putting the money in.

Keep in mind he can have some weird 77 TT etc. 58 52 the guy is loose pre even though it is only 8 hands.
Posted 8 years ago*
This guy could have loads of stuff we beat like overpairs or A8 that sort of stuff, could even be he likes his AK, who knows sometimes witht hese guys.
Given I have the A hearts a flush draw is less likely so I tend to look for overpairs/TP and ship it, then they show me a set, 82, or 85 soooted ofc! Smile

I'm pushing my chips in this time.
Posted 8 years ago
Generally we should give a lot of respect to these raises multi-way and can lay down overpairs. This guy just looks like he can be a total donk though, he probably has enough combos of worse hands that we should even just be shipping for value. Good for him if he's got it.
Posted 7 years ago
I'm going to sit on the nit side of the fence and say I'd fold.

Villain looks super passive so far and without evidence about his post flop raise tendencies, and only having invested a small amount I'm happy to err on the side of caution.

It's a huge raise and his stats are showing signs that he can have almost all two pair combos as well as sets. Just not enough dead money in there to tempt me.
Posted 7 years ago
Hi everyone not sure if I'm starting a new thread, if not sorry. I work as a fitness industry but unfortunately tore my Achilles so I have some real time to devote to the game. Is it ever going to be ok to fold KK pre flop to a 4 bet over our 3bet heads up(4NL)Party Poker no HUD. Seem to be running into AA lately. should I not worry about this to much. If they have AA does it just suck to be us and move on to the next hand?
Posted 7 years ago*
pinch_2712: Hi everyone not sure if I'm starting a new thread, if not sorry. I work as a fitness industry but unfortunately tore my Achilles so I have some real time to devote to the game. Is it ever going to be ok to fold KK pre flop to a 4 bet over our 3bet heads up(4NL)Party Poker no HUD. Seem to be running into AA lately. should I not worry about this to much. If they have AA does it just suck to be us and move on to the next hand?


Start a new thread. At the top next to the PokerVIP logo, go to and mouse over it Forum then "Line Checks and HH Review" in the menu that drops down - click that then top right "New Thread" on the page that opens.

Looks to post the actual hands. Against most people KK is a get it in spot as they can have QQ AK and other hands. It likely just feels like you are running into AA a lot.

On a side note I have been playing for 10 years almost. I have folded KK into AA preflop 3 times in that time.
Posted 7 years ago
Thanks for the info.