nl10 nut flush draw in 3way pot

Posted 7 years ago

villian on bb: 62/15 13hand
villian on sb: 69/15 13hand

if i sure 2play will shove on flop and i had nut flush draw . do i have enough odd to call?

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jongordon84

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jongordon84

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Posted 7 years ago
I'm not much of a nl cash guy but here's my analysis anyways.

When BB shoves the flop I'd give him a range of sets, any 86 as well as K9s+ Q9s+ J9s+ and T9s+ all of clubs. I also includes AA in his range even though I doubt he'd shove the flop with it.

I gave SB a much wider range, here's a picture of it
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Not sure players would have ranges this wide in game but even against these we only have 29.03% so against 2 players this is a fold for me.
Before we even take the rake into account, you would need 29.8% to call here and be breakeven. I used Ipoker rake stats I found online to calculate rake here would almost hit its cap of 20bb.

That means we'd need around 32.04% to call here.
Posted 7 years ago
I would get it in. We need 29% and have 9 outs to the nuts with 2 cards to come A might be an out too sometimes.
Posted 7 years ago
With so much dead money in the pot and so many outs, it's really hard to make a mistake by calling here.
Posted 7 years ago
BBis clearly not a reg after making his squeeze size so small so the chance of him having a weak holding goes up quite a lot. If both villains are anything close to what their stats look like now they should have tons of worse draws as well.

We have over 25% against only sets, and about 35% against 87, so with the chance of a worse hand turning up this is a fist pump stack off.
Posted 7 years ago*
My first question is why the 5x open? Is that your standard bet size? If not I wouldn't adjust bet size that much with only 13 hands seen of the players in the blinds.

Standard call facing a min 3bet. I generally think these min raises suggest hands bad players want to raise because they're strong, but hands they're scared to raise big. So you often see pairs like JJ and TT. But you do sometimes see AA and KK as well as hands like KQs, AQ etc.

Small blind gets a price to come along with almost any 2 and at best has usually got no more than low pairs like 44, 55, 66 etc, but does have a pretty wide range.

In a standard single raise pot with 2 players, at these stakes, the donk bet is anything from bottom pair to the nuts. But with the 3bet, 3 players and the pot sizing you have to tighten that range up a lot. You have the nut flush draw so you aren't often against flush draws from either players. This is going to be sets most of the time.

The big blind has an overpair to the board all day long with this jam.

You're pot odds are 1.7 to 1 if the small blind folds (which is very unlikely) and 2.3 to 1 when he calls. Remember you aren't winning everything in the middle since both players have deeper stacks than you. You're calling 85 to win 145 or 199.

Let's look at a reasonable worst case scenario. You're up against kings and a set. You have just over 27% equity. It's pretty close but an unprofitable call, made even worse if either player has a club.

But if the small blind could also have 2 pair where you have 33%, or the straight where you have 38%, plus a bunch of other hands, then you're getting the odds to call. It's close, but against these players you've got be happy with going with it. More often than not you're losing your stack but you treble up enough to make it good.