NL10z 99

Posted 7 years ago

Vs guy with 4/7 opportunities, 2bet flop. Figure he never has Tx or Qx really so despite small sample I figure he can have enough bluffs to call turn.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $12.95 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
SB: $10.02 (VPIP: 28.00, PFR: 24.00, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 25)
BB: $19.15 (VPIP: 26.90, PFR: 22.76, 3Bet Preflop: 16.13, Hands: 147)
Hero (UTG): $10.76
MP: $10.26 (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
CO: $18.67 (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 40.00, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 9c 9h
Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.25

Flop : ($0.75, 2 players) 5h 2d Td
BB checks, Hero bets $0.50, BB raises to $1.60, Hero calls $1.10

Turn : ($3.95, 2 players) Qc
BB bets $2.60, Hero calls $2.60

River : ($9.15, 2 players) Ts
BB checks, Hero checks


BigBlackClock

Last Post 7 years ago by

BigBlackClock

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Posted 7 years ago
His range should be very tight 4/7. I don't see raising turn as being profitable. I am really happy when he checks river because if he bets again likely we are dead. When he checks river I would expect a lot of diamonds - likely nut diamonds - to be in his range, this does include some QXdd / A5dd etc, but I am happy to check river and get to showdown.

Then the 4/7 guy rolls the T4ss and I am losing my mind lol.
Posted 7 years ago
Ah maybe misunderstood there 4/7 is how much he is raising the flop. He is playing 26/22 with 16% 3bet and raising flop cbets over half the time.
Posted 7 years ago
Let him barrel his bluffs and check back for showdown. Raising turn is hard. Your are likely just folding his bluffs by raising, so given it looks like he will be real wide a lot, let him bomb away and hope he slows down on the river and lets you check it back. 99 IMO is as light as you will be here in terms of hands that have showdown. If he bets river it is gross.
Posted 7 years ago*
4/7 (5/8 now) checkraises is definitely aggro but have you seen what he's shown up with. There are a few things to consider.
1) Sample size is still super small so it could just be some rungood.
2) What textures has he been raising?
3) Could he be overplaying pairs (TP is the nuts!) and be raising stuff like T8 which leaves you in terrible shape?

My typical reaction to someone playing crazy aggro on a flop is to polarise my range a little more than usual. Still bluff still bet strong for value but check hands like this 99 back to prevent this exact type of spot.

After that it just becomes a game of chicken. I want to tell you to fold but then again I do crap like THIS sometimes.

If from what you're seen from villain you expect him to show up with a bunch or random stuff here then call down but I would never be too happy about it. The turn Qx actually will hit some of his range too since he can have Q-high flush draws and logically the better "air" bluffs will be stuff like KQ QJ.

River it's awesome that he checked. Take the free showdown and expect to win sometimes. Smile
Posted 7 years ago
Yeah I agree that if you've noticed the guy raising so many flop bets in the past then maybe go for the check back. Sure we can pick off bluffs but I just think it makes life difficult for us. Again sample size is small over 147 hands and as has been said above, run good can be a factor.

He might have a Qx FD like AQ or KQ, and also the T is a bad card for him on the river if you look at it from his POV.

This is why I hate spots like this, since later streets become a problem once we call the raise with 99 and overcards start to hit. It becomes a bit of a guessing game.
Posted 7 years ago
Sample is definitely small but if someone has raised 5/8 flop c-bets that we have witnessed than we can be somewhat confident that he can be doing this with a lot of nonsense as well. This type of board is hard for him to have hit extremely hard, but it is also tough for us to have hit strongly so if he is a habitual C-bet raiser this board seems like a likely candidate for him to continue with his shenanigans on so I like calling flop.

On the turn, we don't love the Q by any stretch as he can definitely have hit this card with some frequency. He can have Qx flush draw as well as random overcard bluffs like QJ/QK and so on. I still think based on what we know that villain is going to have enough bluffs that we can click the call button here again.

River: Wonderful news that he has checked. If we are beat here I would expect it to be from Qx usually as it makes sense that he slows down on the T river for sure with these types of hands.

One point to note - IF we know that the villain is raising C-bets with such a high frequency is checking this flop going to be better in the long run? We control the pot size a lot more and we can still induce bluffs by taking this line.
Posted 7 years ago
Flop is I think a fairly clear check v this villain, cbetting would be close v an unknown. AP the river saves us, he isn't shoving a paired river, if it isn't I think we face a shove and we throw up... more the reason to check OTF!
Posted 7 years ago
CrazyCookie: Flop is I think a fairly clear check v this villain, cbetting would be close v an unknown. AP the river saves us, he isn't shoving a paired river, if it isn't I think we face a shove and we throw up... more the reason to check OTF!


I think though given how he plays we want to be taking this line to get some money in.
Posted 7 years ago
I always check these second pair type hands unless it's against a fish. You already knew that villain was bluff raising a lot of flops yet walked right into it. Checking just takes the play away from him.

As played I like your line. Villain will fire most turns once he bluffs the flop, yet at 10NL we don't expect him to 3 barrel much at all.
Posted 7 years ago
I would go for the flop check vs most...