NL16 AA

Posted 6 years ago

http://www.handconverter.com/hands/3076322

What do you think folks? I have analyzed this one with flopzilla and according to my analysis i have a slightly +EV call here or a break-even call?! What´s your opinion?
MattVIP

Last Post 6 years ago by

MattVIP

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Posted 6 years ago
I don't know I almost feel like its a fold. I think you need ~41% to make the call (17.35/(3.44+2.19+19.54+17.35). The fact that you have the Ah eliminates a lot of the draws he might do this with. So I guess it really boils down to what you think he would do this with. If you put the obvious sets and KhQh, KhJh, KhTh and 5h4h, you don't get enough, so he would need to be shoving more draws or Kx to get you there. MP call 3b range is not going to have a ton of flush draws in it. So do you think they would be just shoving Q high flush draw or any flush draw for that matter, would he have all 54s and shove those with the OESD? If he called AK here would he just shove the river like this, this deep? There are no 2pair unless this guy is just super loose and if you think that, then I guess its just a snap call.

I did get to 41%+ with 33, 66, 1-AKs, 4-54s, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh. If you add in one combo of KK slowplayed it drops below 41%. So I guess its pretty close and depends on your assumptions. I guess the other thing is, would this guy really just overjam the flop this huge with all of his sets? Wouldn't he just raise those normal? If that is the case then it is an easy call.
Posted 6 years ago
I think this is a relatively safe +EV call against most of the NL16 players. Villain's shove looks weaker than a normal raise-size, to be honest. The optimal play obviously depends on the particular villain, but I'd bet/call this flop by default.