NL25, QJs

Posted 8 years ago

Villain plays with shortstack and have these stats after 10 hands.
VPIP: 40, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 5,0, Hands: 10


Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem PokerStars
6 Players

Blinds$0.10/$0.256
UTG Player4 $2.77
UTG+1Hero $25.81
CO Player6 $24.41
D Player1 $42.54
SB Player2 $31.49
BB Player3 $15.60
Preflop
6$0.35Hero is UTG+1QJ
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.67, 3 folds, Player3 calls $0.42
Flop
2$1.449T2
Player3 checks, Hero bets$0.75, Player3 raises to $2.19, Hero calls$1.44
Turn
2$5.826
Player3 bets $3, Hero folds
Final Pot$8.82

Player3 wins $11.56 (net +$5.70)
Hero collects$0.00 (net -$2.86)
Komododragonjesus

Last Post 8 years ago by

Komododragonjesus

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Posted 8 years ago
IP you can make the turn call with the open ender + 2 overcards.

It would be better if villain had a deeper stack but there's enough money behind for you to chase the draw since you're getting nearly 3:1 on the turn plus implied odds. It should be very easy to get paid off if you hit on the river assuming villain won't x/f a significant amount of the time. If he does x/f river a lot then that lets you win the times you miss your draw.
Posted 8 years ago
I agree.
The reason i folded was that he was so short. i wasnt sure if I had the implied odds here.
Posted 8 years ago
So you're getting 8.82:3. Lets simplify that down to 2:94 to 1 or just about 3:1

I think worst case scenario should be if he has a straight with diamonds where you have ~13% or need 6.33:1

You're already getting ~3:1 direct so you'll need another 3.33:1 implied which I think you just about have. You likely don't get paid off every single time you make your hand though so it's likely not profitable if his range is only that.

That's worst case scenario though. If we assume villain have a range that consists straights (both with diamonds and not), sets, 2 pairs, top pairs, and maybe even the same straight draw (QJ) then you jump up to having something like 25% where you would need 3:1 (which you're getting directly on the turn!).