Here you are at the absolute bottom of your range and we have zero SD value after he calls the turn. So it is a good spot to turn our hand into a bluff.

Jamming the river has merit if we think villain is capable of folding a hand like AQ or KQ. It might be a bit wishful to expect a lot of players at 4NL to fold KK+ here but villain's stats do look like he has some idea.

I would expect him to peel the turn for half pot with AK too which makes me feel that checking behind the river should be fine, but I think I still prefer turn the hand into a bluff.

This would be a good exercise for you to play about with some ranges on Equilab. See exactly how much fold equity you can expect in a best and worst case from a reg. He should lay down Jx comfortably along with smaller pairs.The better one pair hands are debatable.

If you're betting the turn with this hand you kinda have to bet the river (since you're near the bottom of your range once you get called). That being said I think you have enough showdown value to just check the turn especially since you have position.

Pre: Standard.

Flop: Definitely peeling at least one here so I like the call.

Turn: I'm not a fan of betting this turn, we have showdown value and have a gutshot to close to the nuts. We should have very little fold equity against hands that beat us also, I would be checking here and playing rivers.

River: If we bet here we are only targeting Jx realistically, I don't make a habit of trying to fold people off of top pair of better. He will definitely show up with a decent chunk of Jx but also a variety of other Qx etc that I would not expect to be folding ever so I would just be checking this and giving it up.

Disagree completely that we have zero showdown value. We still beat some draws etc. Should be a river check here. Turn play is fine, can potentially reduce sizing, it increases our risk to reward ratio since we risk less and simultaneously increase the chances that our showdown value is good after river check.

Agree with you @w34z3l that my phrasing was sloppy. We do have SD value if he plays AK with this line. He could also play AT and KT like this, altough it doesnt seem likely.

We want to shove this river as often as possible imo since we have such a range advantage and he is capped and we are not. We will have at least 32 combos (AQ+(probably want to shove lighter than that for value)) that we shove for value so we need 16 combos as bluffs to be balanced.

If we are not bluffing this hand what hands can we bluff on the river?