NL50 bluff catch

Posted 7 years ago

A hand I feel I shouldn't have lost a stack.

Villain is a standard TAG reg.

Pre is standard.
Flop - here I think the mistake in the hand could be - I decided to go for cbet as I block KQ and there are lot's of hands that villain would fold vs 2 barrels. Having 8 is not very great though as 88 is part of the range we target. Now I don't like the sizing I chose too if I was going for 2 barrel - 1/3 flop, ~3/4 turn would be better.

Turn is fun, as I stated I block KQ so that leaves J10s that would make the most sense for value (he still has KQ obv while I don't have J10s). I call.

River is a good card for me, limits 99 combos that he might have, clubs bricked so J10s, KQ that I block still for value and I wasn't sure he'd play them this way. If he plays all of his KQ, J10s this way he got 10 combos, but I highly doubt he'd play them all like this. I need 27% for call on river and if he bluffs like 3 combos I'm good.

Thoughts?

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Posted 7 years ago
Interesting turn. If he plays this donkbet strategy somewhat balanced he should have some bluffs here too. I think it makes perfect sence to donk turn bc you will have many 1pair hands that he doesnt want you to check behind on turn or river if he has a good hand. Think you missed that he can have Q9s and K9s for value too.

So what hands can he have as bluffs. Hands that make most sence is T9s J9s TT JJ imo. Not sure in what way he is balanced tho Smile But that river actually hits some of his bluffs (T9s J9s).

I think take this line with K9s Q9s JTs KQ J9s T9s. That is 18 combos. So then we need to find 7 combos that bluffs. I highly doubt that he will bluff more than 50% of his TT JJ.

K8 is better hand to call with than KJ KT. Since we dont block his bluffs (JJ TT) and they are the same hand in this spot.

I think it looks like a fold but its very close where we want to draw the line. K8 and AK are tough hands bc its so close but just 1 nudge better like KQ and we obv have to call.