NL50, BvB 3bet pot river decision

Posted 8 years ago

SB is reg, playing 28/22 with 10.1 3bet. SB steal 51, has folded to resteal 7 times, called 1 time, 4b 1 time (this hand is included). Doesn't fold much vs cbets in 3bet pots, flop 37 (19), turn 38 (8), but has folded vs river cbet 2/2. 3.2k hand sample.

Pre is standard (oh yeah, it is),
Flop, got nut bd and over, so cbet.
Turn my bd, so fire again.
River pairs, I expect him to call most of his KX, so I give up. I think if river doesn't pair, it is a jam? Or should I jam anyway as I got no real sdv?

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem 888
5 Players

Blinds$0.25/$0.505
UTG Player7 $50
CO Player9 $52.10
D Player1 $26.44
SB Player4 $50.25
BBHero $52.52
Preflop
5$0.75Hero is BBA3
3 folds, Player4 raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, Player4 calls $3
Flop
2$996K
Player4 checks, Hero bets$5, Player4 calls $5
Turn
2$197
Player4 checks, Hero bets$12, Player4 calls $12
River
2$436
Player4 checks, Hero checks
trollord59

Last Post 8 years ago by

trollord59

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Posted 8 years ago
I don't think you have a lot of fold equity on the river. You're giving him nearly same pot odds on the river as you did on the turn. So if he called turn then why not call the river too. 6s doesn't change anything for him. On the turn either he was way ahead or way behind, so I think he made his river decision on the turn. Unless he knows you double barrel bluff and check the river unimproved. Then that would be his river plan and jamming the river would make sense.

It's a tough spot anyways. I think you could jam the turn though. You know he can't have flushes. Since you have Ac and Kc on the board and he's not calling 3bets with suited connectors. He doesn't have 66. And neither 99, since he would raise that on the wet flop. So mainly you're up against KX and sticky TT, JJ, QQ. You'll need 45% fold equity to break even and I think you should have way more than that.
Posted 8 years ago
I usually play it the same way. I'm never bluff-jamming turn. Overbet jams look exactly as weak as they are. But firing turn is standard. River, I'm prolly giving up.
Posted 8 years ago
@CycleVancouver Would you give up on river, if it didn't pair?
Posted 8 years ago
Hmmmm, idk what exactly would be a good card to fire, so all we're really saying is, We have AK, you must believe. And he can turn up with kind of anything from KQ/KJ/KT, to TT/JJ, and we block the best draw, so he's likely to have something that is helped by any card 9+, and even if not, he will call some % of the time.

Looking a second time at V's stats, we should probably take the free card ott at least some of the time, or decide to fire all 3 streets? But I'm not as likely to fire 3 streets these days, but remember I play FR so I can afford to play nitty for 6-max standards and still seem LAGgy in my games.

Posted 8 years ago
Yeah. Really unfortunate the board pairs. However, think A high here has no showdown value so we have to bluff.