I would jam the turn. Where I play (not sure about your game/limit) triple barrel bluffs are really rare. He has over a third of his stack in the pot after he bets the turn and this is pretty much the top of our range as played. I know it forces all his bluffs out but I think he's never jamming the river as a bluff.

I don't think there's too much reason to shove the turn as we get them to fold their bluffs.

I do agree that people don't 3 barrel bluff at these stakes and I'm fully expecting to see KK-AA often. I would make a nit fold on the river and feel pretty good about it actually.

I thought that might be wrong lol... I'm just wondering; generally, how big does the pot have to be? The point where the pot is big enough where we don't want to let him realize his equity with his double barrel bluffs.

Never mind, Just found it in " Professional no limit hold'em volume 1"

Shoving turn woukd be pretty horrendous. All his bluffs fold so he calls 100% with a range that beats us...

If we assume triple barrels are never bluffs here then check call check call check fold is immediately a massively higher EV line than shoving turn!

We have 88,99 and three flush combos so folding this isn't horrible otr. I would never x/r flop or turn so I might take a strat of shoving river with 88/ khqh and half my nut flush check call (or shove v a less than AI bet) with 99/ othe rhalf of nut flush and then have QQ is my worst x/c or best x/f.

I think he turns up with KK+ here far too often to bluff catch.

By the time we get to the river he has to be sure we have 77-QQ a lot of the time, does he ever expect to get enough folds from a bluff given our range?

That book is from 2007, probably very outdated!

Ed Millar is a good author tho so couldn't say if it is still relevant or not.

A better book is applications of NLHE far more current!

ya thanks man! isn't that book like 500 pages + or something tho? like $70 too. I wanted to learn about SPR that's why i purchased this book. I'll look into that book next when I get more into GTO.

As for the hand.. We can make an exploitative fold here on the river

TT-JJ is checking the river, KK+ is shoving. So the decision we have (if we really have one) is whether he does this with Ax. I think I'm comfortable saying that his 2-barrel range with Ax is weighted towards Ax with FD, meaning that it's slightly less likely that he would fire away without the NFD. Once the flush comes in, if he doesn't have Ah, then he has to assume that the NFD was part of your range, and he'd be less likely to 3 barrel.

Now I'll be honest, there are times I'll fire all 3 streets just cuz I'm an ag-tard who loves losing a stack. But I also take a note who calls all 3, so I don't run that mistake twice into the same player. And I usually try and pick a board that gets scarier as the hand progresses. Here, no overcards ever came, and like I said, if he isn't blocking NFD, then in a way the board is scarier for him than you. So I think this board is a 2-barrel bluff board, not 3-barrel, and he should have given up otr unless he has it.

Yeah, I guess the fact that river completes FD makes QQ a fold, as his range contains every AhXh and basically no blufs on river as his turn semi-bluffs got there.

If river was 7s then we call as he has plenty of busted nFD's he can bluff, right?

If the river is a blank, I'm not going to say I never call, because as V I usually fire all 3 barrels, but most V's don't, so I still think calling is a mistake.

This is maybe too much leveling, but if he indeed has NFD, that means he blocks almost all of our draws, so that leaves us almost 100% with made hands. So bluffing river with NFD if a blank comes is a mistake since pretty much all we can have are hands that will call. He's actually better off 3 barreling with Ax no hearts, but those hands are less likely to have fired the 2nd barrel to begin with.

I don't know if I explained i well, and I am very willing to hear that this may be too much analysis, but that's my thinking.

Probably correct will come down to iff villain can fold tt-qq. Although fd will likely fold ott so maybe less important, if we were oop I think this would be more relevant. Might decrease our fe by 20% but if we only have nfd and made hands in our bluffing range gl villain calling and having a profitable strategy

All makes sense. I wonder what you guys are betting flop / turn with (in villains perspective)? This is w34z3l's range I use. Hell of a lot nFD's I guess I should x/back Flop/Turn some of them, and instead barrel AdKd, AdQd although I don't backdor or smth?

@MilfGrinder Let me know if you think we should start a separate strategy thread for this question. I'm asking cuz I honestly don't know the answer. If we put V on such a wide 3bet range, why wouldn't we 4bet for value? OOP I don't want to get caught in guessing games. I know if he 5bet/shoves we are in trouble, but even with position, he can't really call with most of his 3bet range, the RIO is too much. And how many people have much of a 5bet bluff range?