MilfGrinder

Ok, so I'm BB, UTG folded, MP opened, 4 callers and I faced great odds although my hand is shit and I jumped on train.

Flop set, want to x/r. Should I donk instead? When OR checks, I know that no one has AAxx (as they'd 3bet mostly) and I also hold a blocker for 10. Checked to BU, who bets 10.5bb into 13bb, sb folds, I pot to 45bb, 2 folds, BU calls. So he has flush draws and some broadway rundowns, maybe A10.

Turn brings flush draw and large portion of his range completes. So now If I check and he jams I face ~26% pot odds, I have 9 outs ~18% if he only jams flushes.

What is my play here?
(please ignore lol stakes)

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Last Post 7 years ago by

Joshk81

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I don't play PLO but the turn looks like an easy fold as I can't see much we beat that shoves. I'm not wise enough to give any more info as I don't play PLO, not sure if they are betting bluffs on the turn given you're not folding any of your really strong hands.

I like the idea of donking because of how heavily the better sets can be discounted.

Turn spot looks gross and I can't see jamming ourselves being good, so I would check and pray that he checks behind with any marginal holdings such as ATxx. If he jams I would give it up.

You only need him to fold 6% of the time for the shove to become better than c/f. And c/c is obv -ev if you think he only shove flush. I think that is possible since there is a inside wrap there and you will see players call with hands like A with backdoors or AKQ etc on the flop.

Calculated from these two formulas

EV= [our EQ * what we win] - [FI:s EQ * what we loose]

FoldEQ= Evfold*X+EvCall*(1-X)

I would call every crappy suited Axxx in this spot or very weak JJxx+ but with almost no hope of flopping/drawing to the nuts you're asking for trouble. Your reverse implied odds are much, much higher than implied odds so no matter how good of a price you're getting you should fold every hand without some sort of nut potential.

As for the rest of the hand, it's hard to add something more on top of the

@Prostaker's post.

Fold pre this hand is awful. Nothing good happens aside from the times you get a T22 board and block their TTxx. Getting 20:1 I would be folding this.

As played everything highlights how bad this hand is pre. If you lead flop and get calls 40% of the deck is likely bad for you. If you check raise and they stack, expect to be happy if you have 55%. If they call brick a turn some of the time pot and get folds.

This had is terribly terrible bad.

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