River decide vs blind

Posted 7 years agoEdited 7 years ago

HAND


Hello friends,

How would you play here ? Villian stats : 27 / 15 / agg. 1 3bet: 2 Turn Check Raise: 25 (1/4) which stats is important for decide and what do you think ?


@Komododragonjesus
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Posted 7 years ago
Looks like an easy fold to me with bottom 2 pair. Not expecting to see too many bluffs from a 27/15 and a bunch of straight draws get there on the turn and river.

If we call we're pretty much hoping they have a whiffed flush draw as that's all we beat. I'd think draw hands they'd raise the flop rather than the turn if they were to raise given T9 completes a straight now.
Posted 7 years ago
Fold. Sucks to fold 2 pairs but you are beat here way too often.
Posted 7 years ago
I completely agree with @Harvie. It's hard to imagine that villain will have enough of busted combos in this spot for you to bluff catch profitably.
Posted 7 years ago*
Really I can only see this guy having T9 here. The other draws I believe raise flop, especially FDs. Why the J would incline anything but the nuts to raise there... I'm not sure. Unless he has say Jc9c, but then that would never have to shove the river.

His 'check raise turn' stat I don't think is important at all here. It might be a quarter of the time, but that's because we only have 4 opportunities for it to happen. All it really means is that he has done it before... and nothing else at this point. We don't know whether it was the nuts or a bluff either, so don't worry about it.
Posted 7 years ago
It's debatable if we can hero fold this turn looking at villain's stats. I doubt he's bluffing here almost ever and expect to see T9 the vast majority of the time. He can always bluff missed flush draws and some airball so peeling one can't be bad.

The river should be an instafold though, you won't see enough missed draws at 10NL with this line.