Should I value bet thin on the river?

Posted 7 years ago

No reads on villain...ugly river but it it still to be a value bet on the river?


Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem PartyPoker
6 Players

Blinds$0.10/$0.256
UTG Bodymaster111 $28.57
UTG+1 Cshoszike $37.73
CO Sexpat $25
DHero $25.25
SB LucaBras1 $33.31
BB osc773 $25.83
Preflop
6$0.35Hero is BTN99
2 folds, Sexpat raises to $0.55, Hero calls$0.55, 2 folds
Flop
2$1.45JT9
Sexpat bets $0.91, Hero raises to $2.51, Sexpat calls $1.60
Turn
2$6.474
Sexpat checks, Hero bets$3.80, Sexpat calls $3.80
River
2$14.07A
Sexpat checks, Hero checks
Final Pot$14.07
Sexpat shows QJ
Hero shows 99

Hero wins$13.37 (net +$6.51)
Sexpat collects $0.00 (net -$6.86)
MattVIP

Last Post 7 years ago by

MattVIP

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Posted 7 years ago
it might be too thin..
Posted 7 years ago
I'm expecting players here to always donk shove on the river with a flush and to check back the rest of their range to either c-c or c-f. While I don't think they ever have a flush after their river check, I don't think we can get value from too much.

If villan was a huge whale then I'd go for a small value bet to get called by Jx, but usually checking back.
Posted 7 years ago*
Are there more hands in his range that you beat that he can call ? qk and flush got there but, there are still alot of 2 pair combos that can call a bet and if he is bad enough he can call with top pair, so i would bet 50% and fold to a raise, it might seem thin but there are alot of worse hands that can still call, so there is value IMO

(Edit qk was already a straight so its even less likely he has that and you are only worried about flushes for the most part)
Posted 7 years ago
i think if you had top 2 pair it would be more of a close spot but with a set i think he can call with alot more combos i would maybe go for thin value with top 2 or better and check anything else but i would bet 50% so that worse 2 pairs are getting the correct price
Posted 7 years ago
Given the fact that villain went for a bet/call on the flop and failed to lead on the river I think you can discount a solid number of monsters from his range and therefore I'm a fan of thin value betting the river.