Unibet 4€ HU SNG bluffcatching
Villain has been pretty aggro in the 20 or so hands we've played together. He's shoved over my limp 13bb effective before. Here the blinds are 60-30 and we're about 14.5bb effective.
Preflop: Hero is BB with K10
SB raises to 120, Hero calls 60
Flop: (240) 810A
Hero checks, SB bets 100, Hero calls 100
Turn: (440) A
Hero checks, SB bets 150, Hero calls 150
River: (740) 6
Hero checks, SB bets 770 and is all in, Hero?
Here's my reasoning: When the flop comes all spades I decide to check call my pair. His small sizing strikes me as odd, especially since I've seen him half pot and 3x pre in the few hands we've played before this one. I think his range would include mostly 8x and 10x hands + any hand with a spade. I don't see him as the type of player to slow play a made flush in a spot like this.
When the ace pairs on the turn, I'm about 90% he doesn't hold an ace. Again his weak sizing strikes me as odd, don't think he would take this line and bet so small with a made flush. Now that I'm holding top 2 pairs with K kicker, I'm very happy to check call with the plan to check call pretty much any river that isn't a spade.
When the river bricks, I expect him to check back most of the time. When he shoves with what is really a pot sized bet I really don't believe that he's holding a flush. I see maybe only 66 being played this way by him, most Ax or bigger pocket I think he would have raised bigger pre flop. Maybe a hand like 79 with a spade would play this way but I'm really not buying it. On a paired board with 3 to a flush, I feel like this bet is very polarizing. Mostly missed draws and full house with maybe a few air hands and maybe some A2o-A4o thrown in there too.
What do you guys think? Our stack on the river is 490 so we're getting 2.51 on our money.
Preflop: Hero is BB with K10
SB raises to 120, Hero calls 60
Flop: (240) 810A
Hero checks, SB bets 100, Hero calls 100
Turn: (440) A
Hero checks, SB bets 150, Hero calls 150
River: (740) 6
Hero checks, SB bets 770 and is all in, Hero?
Here's my reasoning: When the flop comes all spades I decide to check call my pair. His small sizing strikes me as odd, especially since I've seen him half pot and 3x pre in the few hands we've played before this one. I think his range would include mostly 8x and 10x hands + any hand with a spade. I don't see him as the type of player to slow play a made flush in a spot like this.
When the ace pairs on the turn, I'm about 90% he doesn't hold an ace. Again his weak sizing strikes me as odd, don't think he would take this line and bet so small with a made flush. Now that I'm holding top 2 pairs with K kicker, I'm very happy to check call with the plan to check call pretty much any river that isn't a spade.
When the river bricks, I expect him to check back most of the time. When he shoves with what is really a pot sized bet I really don't believe that he's holding a flush. I see maybe only 66 being played this way by him, most Ax or bigger pocket I think he would have raised bigger pre flop. Maybe a hand like 79 with a spade would play this way but I'm really not buying it. On a paired board with 3 to a flush, I feel like this bet is very polarizing. Mostly missed draws and full house with maybe a few air hands and maybe some A2o-A4o thrown in there too.
What do you guys think? Our stack on the river is 490 so we're getting 2.51 on our money.