Is this variance??

Posted 8 years ago

I haven't been playing great, but this must be variance right? Please tell me things are going to be better?
This is my graph for the month, mostly 2NL with a few thousand 5NL hands.Attached Image
Joshk81

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Joshk81

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Posted 8 years ago
It is hard to say without seeing the hands or knowing a bit more...EV sadly does not tell us the full truth.

Maybe post some stats up and hands?
Posted 8 years ago
What's the graph like without 5NL included? How come you're playing both? Have you made any big changes like number of tables, site etc?
Posted 8 years ago
For the limit your redline seems pretty strange to me. Maybe alot of agro play or bluffing with the best hand until someone calls you: IDK. I've seen some 10nl graphs with about 20k samples where the showdown was negative and nonshowdown was positive... That just seems crazy to me but players do it.

One thing that stands out are the steepness of the lines. Seems you've run some stacks up from your original 100 BBs. Then run up against another huge stack and lost being a marginal underdog (as I look at the lines so it seems)... Though I absolutely could be seeing this wrong (my eyesight's not what it once was).

Agree post some stats...
Posted 8 years ago
If the graph was the other way round you wouldn't ask that question.

Have you got more hands than just this sample? This isn't the sort of graph you see that shows varience, long consistent line going in one direction... Suggests you're just a losing player ATM.
Posted 8 years ago*
Yes, i think i was just a losing player playing like that. I took some shots at 5NL and things didnt work out, so i started tilting and played my worst. I still think it's weird my EV line is way up there, but i was playing like a crazy guy.

Took some time to check my hands en read en learn some more. Started playing with more discipline back at 2NL and for the first 15000 hands things are looking better.

Attached Image


Gonna keep this up and stop playing whenever i feel like i am going to start doing crazy aggressive moves.
Posted 8 years ago
You are likely losing a lot of pots before they go to an all in before river showdown. This would result in a EV line that doesn't move and a winrate that looks like a downhill run. PM me sometime if you would like to do a sweat session. I am sure I could help with a lot of leaks.
Posted 8 years ago
Or a few spots you are putting a lot of $s in when in terrible terrible shape so the EV does a little bump and the $ winnings looks like a vertical drop.