Texas Hold'em No Limit Intermediate

Betting for value

6,288 Views 7 Comments on 6/4/12

We likely have the best hand and believe that our opponent is calling with a worse hand often enough.

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When do we bet for value?

Youpokerimage have a made hand and believe your opponent will be calling with worse. In order for a value-bet to be profitable, after your opponent calls he needs to have a worse hand more than 50% of the time.

Here's an example:

Effective stacks are 100bb. You raise to 3bb in the CO with ak. BU calls. SB folds. BB folds.

The flop is qt2. You cbet 5bb into the 7.5bb pot. BU calls.

(This is a good spot to fire a  continuation bet for value on the flop. There are large number of worse hands in villain’s range that will call. Any worse K, any straight-draw, any flush-draw. The times your opponent has a hand like KT, or 22, he will likely let you know by raising this semi-drawy flop.)

The turn is 7. You bet 14bb into the 17.5bb pot. BU calls.

(This turn card doesn’t change a huge deal, but there are some additional draws your opponent could have picked up like jq, 89,a10 etc. Given that your opponent flat-called the flop he likely doesn’t have you beat, and this an excellent spot to fire a second barrel for value given the huge amount of draws and worse made-hands he can call with)

The river is 9. Hero checks.

(This is probably one of the worst cards for you. A large amount of villains drawing range consists of JQ and hearts, both of which get there on the 9 river. The fact villain might have you beat is only part of the problem however. Even if villain hasn’t made his draw he will be concious of the fact that some of your barrelling range includes these draws. He will therefore be folding a lot of hands you might hope to otherwise extract value from.

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There is a decent chance he will muck hands like KQ/KJ on the river, and definitely any worse hands like Tx or JJ/QQ that may have been profitable bluff-catchers on the flop/turn. As a result when your opponent does call/raise he is likely going to have a better hand than yours more than 50% of the time. This is not really a spot where you can value bet the river against the vast majority of opponents.)




I am of British nationality and go by the online alias w34z3l. I am considered one of the top consultants in the field for technical analysis (i.e. database work) and application of game theory concepts to various card games. I make a range of educational content ( ... Read More


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VipZavon 19/9/16

Isn't it obvious Adam meant the flop to have a Kh, not a Qh? And his starting hand should likely be AhKd or some such.


scopinadon 16/9/16

We are beat with the nut flush, yeah!


Pwllon 14/8/15

I just thought, if we think of the thought process rather than the exact hand here, the thoughts of the coach are the nuts not the villain's (or our ) holding. Maybe we can apply thinking like this in other situations similar? Forget the cards because they would add to results orientated thinking rather than thinking strategically? Just an idea, maybe B.S. as usual from me!


Skift71on 6/8/15

don't want to sound naggish, only the word 'concious' is spelled somewhat differently )) as for the content - c'est superb, like everything I've read by this author so far


Pwllon 1/8/15

I think the Qh on the flop must be a misprint? Perhaps Qd instead?


GhostStriker88on 1/9/14

Yea the river gives us the nut`s, well second nut`s as j 8 h is stone cold nuts also j q hearts is not in our opponent`s range as there is a q of hearts on the flop ???? why would we semi bluff 2 streets here then check when we hit second nut`s? this hand makes no sense ? as there is only 1 combo of hand that beat us but alot that can call with worse Confuse me?


Kashclickson 11/8/14

Am I on meth, or does the river not give us the nuts ?

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