Hello again folks, this update is going to be purely poker related and to the point. It is likely to irritate some grinders who have the polar opposite view but it comes straight from my guts and isn't going to be sugar coated.
I have been playing exclusively on Sky Poker and have returned to the methods that served me so very well from 2009-2014 where I consistently had a winrate >10bb/100. As anyone who reads my contributions to various forums regularly will know, I've been wrestling with the volume/game quality dilemma since last summer and I have been oscillating between speed poker and Sky/Unibet.
I have finally concluded that I have cost myself several thousand pounds by procrastinating so long and lacking direction.
For as long as I can remember, I have been urging most microstakes ring game players to avoid Pokerstars like the plague. I think I can now extend that to speed poker in general.
The games just suck. There isn't enough dead money in the pools to go around and give regs a winrate they can take pride in. A 2.5bb winrate isn't something anyone should take pride in. It demonstrates that the player is a busy fool, effectively slave labour for the sites.
If you're making 2.5bb/100 at a limit where that translates to an hourly rate of $25 or better, I guess that is ok but the guys grinding $10nl or lower for $2.50ph or less plus some crumbs of rakeback, are absolutely not making full use of their skills.
I was reading a post on 2p2 yesterday and I saw someone ask this question.
Please enlighten me which player is going to win LONGTERM at a NL100 tables at which stars charges 30bb/100 total (5bb/100 per player)
1. Fish (-5bb/100)
2. Hero (3bb/100)
3. Breako reg (0bb/100)
4. Strong reg (6bb/100)
5. Massgrinder (1bb/100)
6. Bot from Belarus (5bb/100)
Whether those numbers are super accurate or not, it's still a very good question. Even is we fiddle with the numbers a little to make the fish lose at 10bb and drop the bot to a lower winrate, it still demonstrates just how little money there is to be made in these games.
Even allowing for the occasional whales that lose at enormous rates at the nanostakes, the extra rake will account for a lot of their money and the games are still very hard to beat.
I'm sure at this point, lots of you will be thinking along the lines of 'work harder' 'learn to beat the regs' 'become the strong reg from the example' etc. This logic is severely flawed. In theory it makes perfect sense but in practice, for the vast majority of players it just isn't going to happen. What you end up with is a huge slew of talented players that aren't quite top grade for their pool propping the games for the strongest regs and the sites to make all of the money, whilst they chase the dream that one day, they will be that 'strong reg'.
Almost without exception, every player that I know that has successfully made the break away from speed poker and got back into playing reg tables practicing good table/seat selection has increased their profitability significantly. When we table select, we not only get to choose who we play against, we also get to decide who to allow to have position on us and we also get to choose good seats relative to the weakest players, which obviously has a huge impact on our profitability.
Imagine instead of the example above, you could play at a table like this.
1. Fish (-20bb)
2. Fish (-30bb)
3. Hero (10bb)
4. Reg (5bb)
5. Reg (5bb)
6. Reg (10bb)
You wouldn't need many tables of that quality to eclipse your tiny winrate from speed poker and what is more, you would actually be on track to build a roll. Who knows, maybe you might even start truly enjoying the game.
There are so many players that almost have a love/hate relationship with the game and that's mostly because a lot of the time, the games are just too tough but they feed some kind of addiction, either to the action, or to the dream that one day, the player might just have it all click into place and become the next end boss.
The overwhelming narrative you get from almost every poker community is that to be successful you need to play insane volume and be some kind of GTO whizzkid. If you're not that guy, you're not a poker player.
Whilst that maybe a slight exaggeration, it isn't at all far removed from the truth. This post is designed to challenge that narrative and hopefully help some people at least consider changing their ways. I expect the vast majority of players that currently subscribe to the high volume/low winrate 'learn to beat the regs' way of life will dismiss this out of hand and pour scorn on this post. That is fine, I am used to the derision and I'm fine with it but if this post has given you some food for thought and you decide to try a different way, please let me know how it goes, I'll be expecting to read more success stories than tales of woe
GL until the next update
Reg