Given that JT loses to QQ on this board and 4x isn't exactly a huge part of an unknown player's range I'm not going over the top here unless villain is confirmed recreational.

Also, only 5k more to go! #prayforMG

Day 80 - such a tilting day. Basically just breaking even all the time with ~100$ swings to each direction. I ran pretty shitty most of the time but made some good hero calls to keep me even. There was a whale at NL100 against whom I ran hot and took 250$ off him, but ran aids vs another whale to whom I lost ~100$ in ugly fashion. Anyway, BR 5009$, so small loss, but a small win EV wise.

1) Grr, probably too ambitious bluff on the river, but it isn't that far off tbh, I need him to fold 40% of time, and I think he might do so - depends if he 3bets flop with value hands or not. If he doesn't, his range contains ~60 combos and he calls his KX hands +set of QQ, and it sums up at 31 combos.

This is the range of 60 combos that he has OTT. Threshold is 51.67 combos, so even if he doesn't flat set of 9's and 4's - jam is still +EV. He might fold Q9s pf, but as he opens KJo, I don't think he folds. So what you guys think?
Yeah I know I rep SUPER thin and I shouldn't have many KX myself, but I doubt villain is capable of calling off Q9s therefore.





2) Intense, villain was the PLAYER I mentioned, but I didn't know that yet.



3) A super interesting spot OTT - what do I do? I don't have any value raises except veryyy few KK that I don't 4bet, so I can't really bluff jam turn as he'd just snap me off with KQ (that we'd target to fold out).



--------------------
ohh, thank you!

Can you talk more about hand 1 - it seems super weird to raise a flop when after flatting in the SB you have maybe 3 combinations which are better than top pair then on the river, although you work out that it might be +EV to shove it seems pretty close to breakeven when a check is clearly very profitable so I'm not sure why you think jamming is even close to best?

hand 3 I would probably play the same way you did although I don't think jamming the turn is that bad - although you're right we don't have a tonne of value here I don't think we can take all set combos out of your range. Given you may only shove AJdd and ATdd your bluff range is super narrow also and can get villain off of equity and bluffs which may follow through on the river.

@Discomfort Gonna reply to you later, too fkn tilted atm, but yeah, I realized that check/fold probably has higher EV than jam myself after I posted.

Day 81 - well, just fukk me. 4720$. Running so aids all day, got to -300, but then 2 biggest whales of site showed up and I managed to climb back into profit, but... yeah. Lost KKvAQ on QXX vs whale. He was jamming almost every hand and I called him off w/ A9s - fukker had KK this time. I ran 370$ below EV today, so actually a winning day EV wise. I'm down 250$ for the week as well, yet +350 EV wise. Poker is so fkn cruel. Motivation and self esteem are very low. #prayforMG

Time for a long, lonely run in darkness.

@Discomfort Ok, so I did some math again for that river problem. 1) If villain has those 60 combos on river, jam will be +12.78$, while check is +26.83$ (given that villain never turns AQ in a bluff.If he bluffs all of his AQo combos (which is 1/2 of the range I beat), EV of check still is +13.415$). 2) If villain doesn't have 44/99 in his range - 54 combos total. Jam is +4.33$ while check is even higher, +29.7$. So yeah, jam is a big spew. And to be fair - I should never have J10s in that spot in the first place - it should be a 3bet PF. And yeah, hand is rekt therefore.

" it seems super weird to raise a flop when after flatting in the SB you have maybe 3 combinations which are better than top pair then on the river" - I have every QQ/99/44 combos to use as value check raises. I wouldn't x/r QQ and half of 99 on flop, so I got like 4 -5 combos of value x/raises on flop, and if I have J10s there, those are clearly the best bluff x/raise combos.

Fair enough here - I'm surprised you flat as wide as QQ (although ends up not being relevant here as we x/c flop) and 44 but at the same time if JTs are the only bluff raises it's not imbalanced. I was also thinking from a protection point of view but if you have AQ, KQ and some sets then again, unlikely a problem.

Day 82 - wtf was this day, got rekt. I was playing only NL100 for most of the time, and really felt the swings. I have to admit I did play some lineups I wasn't sure they are +EV, but I didn't care, and it's a problem to look out for in future - don't autopilot table just because you're running aids and "sooner or later you'll make a hand". But yeah, I was down under 4.1k at low point, which is -600 for day - the biggest loss ever for me. Fortunately I got some heat in overtime and BR is 4520$, -200, but feels like a win after that down point.

First loosing week of the challenge (unless I decide to play tomorrow and win big). Winning week EV wise, so what can I do.

Graph from PokerCraft - it is not accurate as it doesn't take rake into account, I finish +20 in graph while in reality I'm -200, but still fun to look at.



1) Sums up my week well. He reps only quads or air on the river.

Since that's the first losing week it might be a good idea to take two days of and reevaluate instead of playing (and potentially chasing loses, going for the ultimate 'restucko' and so on). You have more info than I have and I'm sure you'll make a good decision.

#prayforMG

Jep, I'm having the weekend off. I always have at least 1 day off poker, but 85% of time I always take Sat/Sun off. I really don't understand how it is possible to go like 30 days straight 10+ h/day without burning out.

Why not take a Monday or Tuesday off when games are quieter? I'd have thought the weekend is the best time to play with Mon/Tues being the worst?

I feel like this time it's more of a timing thing and taking a break is a good call no matter how good the games are. As for the future, you might have a point, but there're plenty of reasons why @MilfGrinder might not want to play on the weekends (having a robust social life being one of them).

Yeah, I take Sat/Sun off mostly for social reasons. The goal is not to make all the money, the goal is to live a happy life. And at N8, Mondays actually are the softest due to a simple reason - it's rake back day weeeeeee, while the weekend has been pretty bad when I've played. I guess Asians are spending weekends with family more that Europeans, so week days are softer. Also, the time zones works perfectly for me, as morning EU time is evening in Asia, so I can sustain decent schedule while enjoying the softest fields.

Makes sense and I agree with the lifestyle choice. I got a lot of friends who miss so many social events for poker, when the whole point of playing poker is having the freedom to do what you want.

Day 83 - a swingy day again, got +250, then -200, but finished day at +47 and BR is 4567$. It's a bit annoying, but NL50 is real pain atm, I'm doing well at NL100, but 50 I'm just losing in last 10k hands. A lot of unfortunate spots, what can you do. Doing fine at NL100 though and I'm slowly shifting my action towards that stake. I've heard that going from NL100 to NL1k is easier than to get out of micros, so lets do it, motivation is back!

1) Annoying, villain is NOT a spewy rec. Probing 1/3 Turn with intention to x/back river (folding to raise) is the best I guess, don't know why I checked.




2) Grrrrrrr. I like stabbing here and following thru on turned back door, but stack sizes made it really awkward. Again, looks like going 1/3 Turn along with very few value combos I have looks the best - it leaves 80% PSB on the river which we will fire if miss, if I barrel 1/2 as I did - we are left with just 1/2 PSB and little FE to his underpairs / AK/AQ, and we will get value from his turnded flush draws that call 1/3 and fold to river jam. When we bet 1/3, it's easy to fold. As played, I made an error - I don't get correct odds to call. I knew they were close, but it's hard get precise numbers in head - we need 25%, I Initially thought odds were ~22% end therefore called. Against AJo we have 26%, but against range of JJ+,AJs,KJs,AJo,KJo we have 22% and this is a losing call.

@MilfGrinder can you post hands where you win, I feel said when I see the chips go to another player. Also did you change your diet or try it yet?

@Harvie Winning hands? They are non existent lately. Yes, I tried it and looked into scientific side of it as well. There shouldn't be any issue when consume complex carbs - issue is simple carbs (sugar, sweets). Yet I'm trying to avoid carbs for lunch whatsoever, not sure if there is a change.

Day 84 - A new record day!!! To the negative side. -600$, BR is 3971$. Saw nuts everywhere, never got onto happy side of cooler, I just don't know, what the fuck am I supposed to do, this is so tilting. I made a bad hero call and 1 ambitious bluff, but that's it for spews. Just meant to lose.

1) A winning hand. Had one similar to this one. Didn't win.



2A) I'm getting sooo fkn many hands like these when I turn/river top pair and end up calling obv. Am I supposed to fold?



2B)



2C)



3) Hero calling going wrong. Should have folded as BDFD got in. Didn't expect a set to be raising here really 4way, flop isn't that wet.



4) Bluffing gone wrong. Guy tanked till the very last second. I'll have JJ/99/Q10s for value that'll play like this. Close to 50% of his range will be AK, he has to fold like 1/2 of AK combos for me to break even. I'm not sure if AQo is the best candidate for this line. I block AA/AK/KQ so should get more folds on the flop, but turn gets dicey I guess. Will run numbers on this one if it's good to use AQo or better to pick out J10s/109s that will have higher equity but doesn't block much.

^ AQo bluff spot.

Ok, so I did some lol math. I have 10 value combos, so If I mix in AQs, J10s, 109s - it'll end up 10 combos as well. I think this is enough for a 3bet pot. So 10/10 on flop. On turn now, I still jam my 10 value combos. I can mix in AdQd and all 3 combos of J10s (can't have 10d9d). I'll have 24% equity vs his calling range and he only has to fold 22% of time for my bluffs to be profitable, which he will I suppose - he has to fold 5 combos and he got 10 AK and maybe 1 QQ, some might overfold and even let AA go. AQo can just x/call flop and muck unimproved turn.

Hand mark: F-

Lesson learnt.

Day 85 - moved my action to NL50 with only whale hunting at NL100, didn't run below EV and BR is 4126$.

1) clickclickclickclick



Posted a HAND in line check forum here, would like to hear some thoughts.

I've decided that I will work on my game each work day. I've been lacking studying part really, and if I want to get into and crush mid stakes, I have to put in a lot of work. It's easy to play vs weak pools up to NL50, but at NL100 there are some good regs, and there ton of spots arises where I'm not certain what is the best play. I want to know. So I'll spend minimum 30 min (probably more) with Equilab each day (I don't have pio).

Have to say this really helped me cure my tilt from my recent sessions. Recently down 3bi+ at 5NL over the last few sessions, a game I'm beating comfortably, and it made me feel terrible. It's definitely not fun and I feel like I have no skill. So props to you because downswings happen to everyone and this made me feel better for sure. Wish there was a thread to help with downswings, tilt, etc.

@Cookie Monster That looks like my every day now! Poker is cruel game, what can I say.

Day 86 - same old story. BR 4027$. Made 2 questionable hero calls, that's about it. No money in poker.

1) vs whale who was potting / going all the way every other hand. FD bricked, I block 89, so I called. Obv backdoor FH



2) I don't think I have any stronger hand than JJ here.



3) Again.



4) Whale hunting weeeeeeeeee



5) weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee