Day 80 - such a tilting day. Basically just breaking even all the time with ~100$ swings to each direction. I ran pretty shitty most of the time but made some good hero calls to keep me even. There was a whale at NL100 against whom I ran hot and took 250$ off him, but ran aids vs another whale to whom I lost ~100$ in ugly fashion. Anyway,
BR 5009$, so small loss, but a small win EV wise.
1) Grr, probably too ambitious bluff on the river, but it isn't that far off tbh, I need him to fold 40% of time, and I think he might do so - depends if he 3bets flop with value hands or not. If he doesn't, his range contains ~60 combos and he calls his KX hands +set of QQ, and it sums up at 31 combos.
This is the range of 60 combos that he has OTT. Threshold is 51.67 combos, so even if he doesn't flat set of 9's and 4's - jam is still +EV. He might fold Q9s pf, but as he opens KJo, I don't think he folds.
So what you guys think?
Yeah I know I rep SUPER thin and I shouldn't have many KX myself, but I doubt villain is capable of calling off Q9s therefore.
2) Intense, villain was the PLAYER I mentioned, but I didn't know that yet.
3) A super interesting spot OTT - what do I do?
I don't have any value raises except veryyy few KK that I don't 4bet, so I can't really bluff jam turn as he'd just snap me off with KQ (that we'd target to fold out).
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ohh, thank you!