25 PLO Btn vs SB 3b ... 998xhh flop with QQJ6dhhd with SPR 4 post... Can we get it in?
Hello.
I have opened Btn with QQJ6dhhd in 6 max PLO. SB has 3b me with 100 bb stack. Over 100 hands, he is a VPIP 25% PFR 14% St 31% and 3B 6.5% AF is 1.4.
His range here is (I think) largely decent aces and some suited - double suited broadway heavy rundowns.
I call with position on the button. Effective SPR postflop is 4.
He leads for pot effectively leaving a pot sized bet behind on 899hhx. (starting with SPR 4 the pot lead now allows for a pot sized reraise or a pot sized bet on the turn by him if I call)
I think we are a reasonable dog to his range that we can fold here?
Against a raw 6% range we have 39% equity. There are a small number of hands he is bet folding on this flop but his continuing range will likely be hands that are rundowns with a 9 which block our flush and straight draw, bigger pairs with a flush draw, and even some AJTK type hands with the flush draw.
Against his wraps + a 9 where he does not have hearts we have 36.5% versus 9sTsJcKc type hands. (note backdoor clubs here - we have hearts and diamonds I feel safe assuming often he has clubs here)
With broad way runs that flop wrap nut flush draw we have 47% versus ThJcKcAh.
Then big pairs with the flushdraw we have 24% vs 5hKdAhAc.
We need 40% here to break even.
I would think likely we are about the 33-35% against his range so this feels like it should be a fold when he pots here? I take his pot lead to be mostly genuine - he is looking to get stacks in. Is calling an option thinking maybe some turns he checks and gives up / checks and lets us check behind? I think this is not really sound though I think if we are continuing here we are repotting.
What are your thoughts on this?
As always, thanks for any input.
Josh.
I have opened Btn with QQJ6dhhd in 6 max PLO. SB has 3b me with 100 bb stack. Over 100 hands, he is a VPIP 25% PFR 14% St 31% and 3B 6.5% AF is 1.4.
His range here is (I think) largely decent aces and some suited - double suited broadway heavy rundowns.
I call with position on the button. Effective SPR postflop is 4.
He leads for pot effectively leaving a pot sized bet behind on 899hhx. (starting with SPR 4 the pot lead now allows for a pot sized reraise or a pot sized bet on the turn by him if I call)
I think we are a reasonable dog to his range that we can fold here?
Against a raw 6% range we have 39% equity. There are a small number of hands he is bet folding on this flop but his continuing range will likely be hands that are rundowns with a 9 which block our flush and straight draw, bigger pairs with a flush draw, and even some AJTK type hands with the flush draw.
Against his wraps + a 9 where he does not have hearts we have 36.5% versus 9sTsJcKc type hands. (note backdoor clubs here - we have hearts and diamonds I feel safe assuming often he has clubs here)
With broad way runs that flop wrap nut flush draw we have 47% versus ThJcKcAh.
Then big pairs with the flushdraw we have 24% vs 5hKdAhAc.
We need 40% here to break even.
I would think likely we are about the 33-35% against his range so this feels like it should be a fold when he pots here? I take his pot lead to be mostly genuine - he is looking to get stacks in. Is calling an option thinking maybe some turns he checks and gives up / checks and lets us check behind? I think this is not really sound though I think if we are continuing here we are repotting.
What are your thoughts on this?
As always, thanks for any input.
Josh.