NL10-snap, 56s

Posted 9 years ago

Help me with the sizing here:
How do I know what is best on the river Shove or bet normal sizing?
I guess this is villain-dependent, but I would like to hear a little about how you think in spots like this.

This hand villain had the stats: VPIP: 60, PFR: 27 but only 15 hands.

Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem 888
6 Players

Blinds$0.05/$0.106
UTG Player6 $3.58
UTG+1Hero $10
CO Player9 $8
D Player1 $19.63
SB Player2 $9.75
BB Player4 $39.65
Preflop
6$0.15Hero is UTG+165
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.28, 3 folds, Player4 calls $0.18
Flop
2$0.61384
Player4 checks, Hero bets$0.45, Player4 calls $0.45
Turn
2$1.517
Player4 checks, Hero bets$1.33, Player4 calls $1.33
River
2$4.17Q
Player4 checks, Hero goes all-in$7.94, Player4 folds
Final Pot$12.11

Hero wins$19.81 (net +$9.81)
Player4 lost $2.06
Turlock

Last Post 9 years ago by

Turlock

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Posted 9 years ago*
I'd like to go and make it $3.90 or so. A river shove looks super strong and nutted, and there's a good chance villain does not have a super strong hand (60vpip plays too many hands) so they are folding a bunch.
Posted 9 years ago
I prefer your line when there's quite a few missed draws. Here though it just looks too nutted and will be much worse EV than a normal size bet.

As there's not too many strong hands villain will call three barrels with I would bet a non polarising amount around $2.40 hoping he somehow gets here with Qx or has 87. This villain type won't always raise his sets on the flop or turn so we can still expect to get the money in on the river some % if he does have one.