NL10 QJs

Posted 8 years ago

https://www.weaktight.com/r/575bfb72d3904384358b456a

The oponent is a fish, but no stats.

This was the last hand of the session and I must admit I was kinda confused when I saw the flop Laugh

How do I extract the max value? I think my river bet is a little bit too optimistic, isn't it?
w34z3l

Last Post 8 years ago by

w34z3l

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Posted 8 years ago
I'd have just go and pot the river to get a call from Jx (few combos that they have). Don't like the over shove as I really don't see us getting called that often.

Turn check is fine, we block almost all pair combos so they range is bluffs, FDs which got there and a few OESDs.

Posted 8 years ago
I like it up to the river. The overshove will definitely be +EV but probably not the highest EV play. He obviously showed up with a random LOL hand here but thinking about what he calls on the river I don't think a Jx calls the shove and Kd might find a fold for that sizing too, I definitely think Td would. Then if you're up against Ad you of course get max value but if you bet smaller villain will probably shove on you anyways so you don't really lose value by going smaller vs his nut flushes.

Overall I think going smaller like 3/4-full pot will get value out of more hands and won't cost you any value against his super strong hands so I'd go with that.
Posted 8 years ago
that's so obvious when you say it. thanks
Posted 8 years ago
Hand looks ok, but I agree with the others that a smaller bet on the river would have a higher EV.

I like how you recognise his range is bluff heavy and resist the temptation to 3 bet the flop even being OOP.

I think it's an interesting idea to lead out on the turn once this card comes. Villain will perceive our range to include T9 and flushes and will check back a lot of his Jx combos to pot control, meaning when a four flush arrives on the river we only get one street of value some of the time. He might also have picked up a bare flush draw which he bluffed with that we can target for value in case he wants to check behind like in the hand. There's no guarantee villain will continue bluffing if we check anyway, so I doubt we're missing out on much if he folds.
Posted 8 years ago
When you are playing these limits and someone raises this kind of flop texture any balance considerations should go out of the window. We have the effective nuts and should simply re-raise for value.

River overshove probably not highest EV as mentioned. Kinda lucky that he specifically had the Ace, and even then it's debatable whether he should actually call.