sosatime96

Villain is unknown.

I think my play up to the river is standard. (I would usually 3bet this but I had just sat at the table I so wanted to get a feel for the other players first.)

My plan was to call on the river. However when he ships it I'm worried as I don't think most people will bet this much with AK or AA. I'm dead to any set, but I block KK, and I think a lot of people fold 44 33 pre in utg. Not worried about QQ as he shouldn't be betting that big on K high flop. I'm also dead to AJ and J9 of diamonds. I think he can be bluffing with missed flush / combo draws sometimes, and I also expect to chop a good % of the time.

I didn't feel good about the call but I felt my hand was too strong to fold.

Thoughts?

Last Post 8 years ago by

Turlock

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I don't every expect us to be good here on the river that often. I don't expect anything worse than a set to be shoving here, they don't have any two pair hands from UTG other than KQ which we block. AA is not shoving this river.

At higher limits I can see regs barrelling off here because the run out is semi-decent to barrel off, but at 50nl UTG vs UTG+1, I only expect to see value ranges betting on the river read-less.

Pre: Typically I three bet this also as you mentioned in your analysis.

Flop and turn: Pretty standard.

River: I don't think I'm folding here. Villain is repping a very narrow range here and as you mentioned we block KQ hands. My biggest concern would be AJdd, folding vs this narrow a range where we are pretty much at the top of our range seems out of the question to me.

Pre I would prefer a 3 bet.Calling can't be terrible but the EV will be higher 3 betting in position.

Flop and turn can't really be played any different, although raising the turn may be ok.

Without reads I think I could find a fold on the river. I doubt KT ever plays this way.There's AJ and all the sets which make sense. Saying your hand is too strong to fold is important when you expect to be worried about getting exploited, but at 25NL that's not much of a factor.

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